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Stochastic intrinsic Kriging for simulation metamodeling

Author

Listed:
  • Ehsan Mehdad
  • Jack P.C. Kleijnen

Abstract

Kriging (or a Gaussian process) provides metamodels for deterministic and random simulation models. Actually, there are several types of Kriging; the classic type is the so‐called universal Kriging, which includes ordinary Kriging. These classic types require estimation of the trend in the input‐output data of the underlying simulation model; this estimation weakens the Kriging metamodel. We therefore consider the so‐called intrinsic Kriging (IK), which originated in geostatistics, and derive IK types for deterministic simulations and random simulations, respectively. Moreover, for random simulations, we derive experimental designs that specify the number of replications that varies with the input combination of the simulation model. To compare the performance of IK and classic Kriging, we use several numerical experiments with deterministic simulations and random simulations, respectively. These experiments show that IK gives better metamodels, in most experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehsan Mehdad & Jack P.C. Kleijnen, 2018. "Stochastic intrinsic Kriging for simulation metamodeling," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(3), pages 322-337, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:34:y:2018:i:3:p:322-337
    DOI: 10.1002/asmb.2300
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehsan Mehdad & Jack P. C. Kleijnen, 2018. "Efficient global optimisation for black-box simulation via sequential intrinsic Kriging," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(11), pages 1725-1737, November.
    2. Mehdad, E. & Kleijnen, Jack P.C., 2014. "Global Optimization for Black-box Simulation via Sequential Intrinsic Kriging," Discussion Paper 2014-063, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Mehdad, E., 2015. "Kriging metamodels and global opimization in simulation," Other publications TiSEM 5b5c276a-fe68-4ce9-b8a8-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Nathan E. Wilson, 2021. "The Impact of Competition on Investment: Evidence From California Hospitals," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 1-32, March.
    5. Feng, Ben Mingbin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Zhou, Kenneth Q., 2022. "Green nested simulation via likelihood ratio: Applications to longevity risk management," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 285-301.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory

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