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Fight the Youth: Youth Bulges and State Repression

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  • Ragnhild Nordås
  • Christian Davenport

Abstract

It is generally acknowledged that large youth cohorts or “youth bulges” make countries more susceptible to antistate political violence. Thus, we assume that governments are forewarned about the political demographic threat that a youth bulge represents to the status quo and will attempt to preempt behavioral challenges by engaging in repression. A statistical analysis of the relationship between youth bulges and state repression from 1976 to 2000 confirms our expectation. Controlling for factors known to be associated with coercive state action, we find that governments facing a youth bulge are more repressive than other states. This relationship holds when controlling for, and running interactions with, levels of actual protest behavior. Youth bulges and other elements that may matter for preemptive state strategies should therefore be included in future empirical models of state repression.

Suggested Citation

  • Ragnhild Nordås & Christian Davenport, 2013. "Fight the Youth: Youth Bulges and State Repression," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 926-940, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:57:y:2013:i:4:p:926-940
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12025
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniil Romanov & Andrey Korotayev, 2019. "«Non-Violent, But Still Dangerous»: Testing The Link Between Youth Bulges And The Intensity Of Non-Violent Protests," HSE Working papers WP BRP 69/PS/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Sara Kahn-Nisser, 2021. "For better or worse: Shaming, faming, and human rights abuse," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 479-493, May.
    3. Ragnhild Nordås, 2014. "Religious demography and conflict: Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 146-166, June.
    4. Mohamed Ali Marouani & Phuong Le Minh, 2021. "Inequality and occupational change in times of Revolution: The Tunisian perspective," Working Papers DT/2021/06, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    5. Lasse Lykke Rørbæk & Allan Toft Knudsen, 2017. "Maintaining ethnic dominance: Diversity, power, and violent repression," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(6), pages 640-659, November.
    6. Vegard Skirbekk & Michaela PotanÄ oková & Conrad Hackett & Marcin Stonawski, 2018. "Religious Affiliation Among Older Age Groups Worldwide: Estimates for 2010 and Projections Until 2050," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 73(8), pages 1439-1445.
    7. Christopher Wiley Shay, 2023. "Swords into ploughshares? Why human rights abuses persist after resistance campaigns," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 141-156, January.
    8. Mohamed Ali Marouani & Minh-Phuong Le & Michelle Marshalian, 2020. "Jobs, earnings, and routine-task occupational change in times of revolution: The Tunisian perspective," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Income Shocks, Inequality, and Democracy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 295-326, January.
    10. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Witthuhn, Stefan, 2017. "Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-70.
    11. Anna Balestra & Raul Caruso, 2024. "Education and Military Expenditures: Countervailing Forces in Designing Economic Policy. A Contribution to the Empirics of Peace," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0035, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Thomas Apolte & Lena Gerling, 2018. "Youth bulges, insurrections and labor-market restrictions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 63-93, April.
    13. Roessler, Martin & Zwerschke, Patrick & Old, Jonathan, 2021. "Democracy and the Transnational Dimensions of Low-Level Conflict and State Repression," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0dp237jm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.

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