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When Does Negativity Demobilize? Tracing the Conditional Effect of Negative Campaigning on Voter Turnout

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  • Yanna Krupnikov

Abstract

Do negative campaign advertisements affect voter turnout? Existing literature on this topic has produced conflicting empirical results. Some scholars show that negativity is demobilizing. Others show that negativity is mobilizing. Still others show that negativity has no effect on turnout. Relying on the psychology of decision making, this research argues and shows that this empirical stalemate is due to the fact that existing work ignores a crucial factor: the timing of exposure to negativity. Two independent empirical tests trace the conditional effect of negativity. The first test relies on data from the 2004 presidential campaign. The second test considers the effect of negativity over a broader period of time by considering elections 1976 to 2000. Taken together, both tests reinforce that negativity can only demobilize when two conditions are met: (1) a person is exposed to negativity after selecting a preferred candidate and (2) the negativity is about this selected candidate.

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  • Yanna Krupnikov, 2011. "When Does Negativity Demobilize? Tracing the Conditional Effect of Negative Campaigning on Voter Turnout," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 797-813, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:55:y:2011:i:4:p:797-813
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00522.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruben Durante & Emilio Gutierrez, 2014. "Political Advertising and Voting Intention: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Ads Viewership," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/26lctatf2u8, Sciences Po.
    2. Niam Yaraghi & Darrell M West & Ram D Gopal & Ram Ramesh, 2020. "(How) did attack advertisements increase Affordable Care Act enrollments?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Ruben Durante & Emilio Gutierrez, 2014. "Political Advertising and Voting Intention: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Ads Viewership," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/26lctatf2u8, Sciences Po.
    4. Galasso, Vincenzo & Morelli, Massimo & Nannicini, Tommaso & Stanig, Piero, 2024. "The Populist Dynamic: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Countering Populism," IZA Discussion Papers 16796, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/26lctatf2u813of8nkn7j2230h is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Galasso, Vincenzo & Morelli, Massimo & Nannicini, Tommaso, 2022. "Fighting Populism on Its Own Turf: Experimental Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 17380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Bruno Carvalho & Claudia Custodio & Benny Geys & Diogo Mendes & Susana Peralta, 2020. "Information, Perceptions, and Electoral Behaviour of Young Voters: A Randomised Controlled Experiment," Working Papers ECARES 2020-14, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Kevin Dayaratna & Jesse Crosson & Chandler Hubbard, 2022. "Closed Form Bayesian Inferences for Binary Logistic Regression with Applications to American Voter Turnout," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-21, November.

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