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How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in The States?

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  • Jeffrey R. Lax
  • Justin H. Phillips

Abstract

We compare two approaches for estimating state‐level public opinion: disaggregation by state of national surveys and a simulation approach using multilevel modeling of individual opinion and poststratification by population share. We present the first systematic assessment of the predictive accuracy of each and give practical advice about when and how each method should be used. To do so, we use an original data set of over 100 surveys on gay rights issues as well as 1988 presidential election data. Under optimal conditions, both methods work well, but multilevel modeling performs better generally. Compared to baseline opinion measures, it yields smaller errors, higher correlations, and more reliable estimates. Multilevel modeling is clearly superior when samples are smaller—indeed, one can accurately estimate state opinion using only a single large national survey. This greatly expands the scope of issues for which researchers can study subnational opinion directly or as an influence on policymaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey R. Lax & Justin H. Phillips, 2009. "How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in The States?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 107-121, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:1:p:107-121
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00360.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gibson, James L., 1992. "The Political Consequences of Intolerance: Cultural Conformity and Political Freedom," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 338-356, June.
    2. Cook, Timothy E., 1999. "The Empirical Study of Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Politics: Assessing the First Wave of Research," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(3), pages 679-692, September.
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