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The Limits of Ecological Inference: The Case of Split‐Ticket Voting

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  • Wendy K. Tam Cho
  • Brian J. Gaines

Abstract

We examine the limits of ecological inference methods by focusing on the case of split‐ticket voting. Burden and Kimball (1998) report that, by using the King estimation procedure for inferring individual‐level behavior from aggregate data, they are the first to produce accurate estimates of split‐ticket voting rates in congressional districts. However, a closer examination of their data reveals that a satisfactory analysis of this problem is more complex than may initially appear. We show that the estimation technique is highly suspect in general and especially unhelpful with their particular data.

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  • Wendy K. Tam Cho & Brian J. Gaines, 2004. "The Limits of Ecological Inference: The Case of Split‐Ticket Voting," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 152-171, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:48:y:2004:i:1:p:152-171
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00062.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Baodong Liu, 2007. "EI Extended Model and the Fear of Ecological Fallacy," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(1), pages 3-25, August.
    2. Lang, Corey & Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna, 2022. "Aggregate data yield biased estimates of voter preferences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Álvaro J. Corral & David L. Leal, 2020. "Latinos por Trump? Latinos and the 2016 Presidential Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1115-1131, May.
    4. Prendergast, Patrick & Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna & Lang, Corey, 2019. "The individual determinants of support for open space bond referendums," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 258-268.
    5. Bernard Grofman & Matt A. Barreto, 2009. "A Reply to Zax's (2002) Critique of Grofman and Migalski (1988)," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 37(4), pages 599-617, May.
    6. Sarah Moon, 2024. "Partial Identification of Individual-Level Parameters Using Aggregate Data in a Nonparametric Binary Outcome Model," Papers 2403.07236, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    7. Matt Barreto & Loren Collingwood & Sergio Garcia-Rios & Kassra AR Oskooii, 2022. "Estimating Candidate Support in Voting Rights Act Cases: Comparing Iterative EI and EI-R×C Methods," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 51(1), pages 271-304, February.

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