IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aoz/wpaper/374.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revisiting the Origins of Populism: Social Determinants of Perón ´s First Victory

Author

Listed:
  • José J. Bercoff

    (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán)

  • Esteban Nicolini

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid/Universidad Nacional de Tucumán)

Abstract

An ecological analysis of the general election in Argentina in 1946 suggests that the votes for Perón were higher in districts with high levels of social and economic development (relatively larger proportions literates and industrial employees and relatively higher wages), more affected by electoral fraud and with a smaller specialization in export-oriented activities. The ecological inference analysis strongly suggest that this characterization of districts is also a good characterization of the groups supporting Peron in the election: literates (rather than illiterates), industrial employees (rather than the rest of the population), urban dwellers (rather than rural dwellers) and migrants (rather than natives) had significantly higher probability of voting Perón. The support for Perón originated in a variety of motivations from different social groups that reacted against the traditional political model.

Suggested Citation

  • José J. Bercoff & Esteban Nicolini, 2025. "Revisiting the Origins of Populism: Social Determinants of Perón ´s First Victory," Working Papers 374, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:374
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/374.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alston, Lee J. & Gallo, Andrés A., 2010. "Electoral fraud, the rise of Peron and demise of checks and balances in Argentina," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 179-197, April.
    2. Snow, Peter G., 1969. "The Class Basis of Arqentine Political Parties," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 163-167, March.
    3. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2013. "A Political Theory of Populism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 771-805.
    4. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1, March.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastián, 1990. "La macroeconomía del populismo en la América Latina," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 57(225), pages 121-162, enero-mar.
    6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Wendy K. Tam Cho & Brian J. Gaines, 2004. "The Limits of Ecological Inference: The Case of Split‐Ticket Voting," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 152-171, January.
    8. Andrew Gelman & David K. Park & Stephen Ansolabehere & Phillip N. Price & Lorraine C. Minnite, 2001. "Models, assumptions and model checking in ecological regressions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(1), pages 101-118.
    9. Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
    10. Massimiliano Castellani & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Antonello Eugenio Scorcu, 2012. "Visual artist price heterogeneity," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 16-22.
    11. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastian, 1990. "Macroeconomic populism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 247-277, April.
    12. Paolino, Philip, 2001. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Models with Beta-Distributed Dependent Variables," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 325-346, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    2. Campos, Luciano & Casas, Agustín, 2021. "Rara Avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Ege Asutay & Christopher Ball & Andreas Freytag, 2025. "Populist Ideology, Policy and the Real Economy: Walking the Stick," CESifo Working Paper Series 12220, CESifo.
    4. Benczes, István & Szabó, Krisztina, 2023. "Társadalmi törésvonalak és gazdasági (ir)racionalitások. A közgazdaságtan szerepe és helye a populizmus kutatásában [Social cleavages and economic (ir)rationalities: The role of economics in populi," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 23-54.
    5. Ege Asutay & Christopher Ball & Andreas Freytag, 2025. "Populist Ideology, Policy and the Real Economy: Walking the Stick," Jena Economics Research Papers 2025-011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Giray Gozgor, 2022. "The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 229-246, January.
    7. Benczes, István & Szijártó, Norbert, 2024. "Államháztartási kiadások alakulása populista kormányok alatt Kelet-Közép-Európában [Public expenditure under populist governments in Central and Eastern Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1001-1031.
    8. Alan de Bromhead & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "Should history change the way we think about populism?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(3), pages 1086-1109, August.
    9. Petar Stankov, 2018. "The Political Economy of Populism: An Empirical Investigation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(2), pages 230-253, June.
    10. Strobl, Martin & Sáenz de Viteri, Andrea & Rode, Martin & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2023. "Populism and inequality: Does reality match the populist rhetoric?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 1-17.
    11. Giray Gozgor, 2020. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in Rising Populism in the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 8499, CESifo.
    12. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ursula Münch & Armin Nassehi & Joe Kaeser & Knut Bergmann & Matthias Diermeier & Florian Dorn & David Gstrein & Florian Neumeier & Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch & Kerim Peren A, 2024. "Wohlstand in Gefahr? Ursachen und Folgen von Populismus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 77(03), pages 03-32, March.
    15. Gilles Saint‐Paul & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2021. "Engineering crises: Favoritism and strategic fiscal indiscipline," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 583-610, November.
    16. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & König, Philipp Johann, 2020. "Leaping into the dark: A theory of policy gambles," Discussion Papers 07/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Federico Faveretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Financial Inequality, group entitlements and populism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1892, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    18. Daniel L. Bennett & Christopher Boudreaux & Boris Nikolaev, 2023. "Populist discourse and entrepreneurship: The role of political ideology and institutions," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(1), pages 151-181, February.
    19. Alogoskoufis, George, 2024. "Before and after the political transition of 1974: institutions, politics, and the economy of post-war Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124056, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    21. Hancevic, Pedro & Cont, Walter & Navajas, Fernando, 2016. "Energy populism and household welfare," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 464-474.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • N46 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Inés D Amato (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/redniar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.