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The High Stakes of Bad Exams

Author

Listed:
  • Jack Rossiter
  • Might Kojo Abreh
  • Aisha Ali
  • Justin Sandefur

Abstract

Each year two million secondary school students across West Africa sit coordinated exams. Pass rates fluctuate enormously, fueling speculation about cheating and short-term policy changes. To investigate these hypotheses, we construct hybrid exams containing items spanning 2011–2019 and administer these to 4,380 students. Exam difficulty alone explains 80 percent of pass rate fluctuations in Ghana, while additional factors remain influential in Nigeria and elsewhere. Half of the candidates who failed mathematics in 2015 would have passed in 2019. Model-based estimates imply that improving exam comparability would increase the Mincerian return to skills among secondary school graduates by six percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Rossiter & Might Kojo Abreh & Aisha Ali & Justin Sandefur, 2025. "The High Stakes of Bad Exams," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 60(6), pages 2008-2037.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:60:y:2025:i:6:p:2008-2037
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0621-11739R1
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    File URL: http://jhr.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/60/6/2008
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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