IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ura/ecregj/v1y2018i4p1102-1116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Agent-Based Model of Eurasia and Simulation of Consequences of Large Infrastructure Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Valeriy Makarov
  • Albert Bakhtizin

    (CEMI RAS)

  • Elena Sushko

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute RAS)

  • Alina Ageeva

    (Institution of Russian Academy of Sciences Central Economics and Mathematics Institute RAS)

Abstract

The implementation of large infrastructure projects has a significant impact on the spatial location of production and change of trade flows. It causes the changes in migration flows and influences the socio-economic development of territories involved in the project. Preliminary assessment of the consequences of the implementation of similar projects requires the use of models. One of the modern directions of simulating is the agent-based approach. It allows to recreate a structure and behaviour of real socioeconomic systems in an artificial environment and to imitate their behaviour if external conditions change. The realism of the simulation of the main socio-economic processes determines the success of pursuing agent-based models to meet the challenges of forecasting. The article describes the construction of the agent-based model of the countries of Eurasia, imitating the basic processes of population movement in these countries, as well as the consequences of implementing large infrastructure projects as a result of the actions of many independent agents. There are two types of agents in the model: a) countries that are capable of lobbying for the implementation of profitable projects, and b) people who live in these countries, who create families, give birth to children and choose the type of activity and place of residence. In agents behaviour’s algorithm, we consider factors, revealed as a result of the research of actual migration processes in the countries of Eurasia. This has allowed to recreate in the model the imitation of people’s behaviour close to reality. The model construction was tested for two routes of New Silk Road. During the experiments, we monitored the changes of economic and demographic indicators for each participating country. Thus, for Russia the growth of total trade turnover (9.6 %) and net export (1.5 %) was observed. Participation in the project gave to China the growth 3.8 % and 7.7 %, respectively. The small countries (Georgia, Bulgaria) showed the reduction of migration outflow and improvement of age structure of the population. The model can be used for preliminary assessment of the consequences of the large infrastructure projects implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeriy Makarov & Albert Bakhtizin & Elena Sushko & Alina Ageeva, 2018. "An Agent-Based Model of Eurasia and Simulation of Consequences of Large Infrastructure Projects," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1102-1116.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2018:i:4:p:1102-1116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economyofregion.ru/Data/Issues/ER2018/December_2018/ERDecember2018_1102_1116.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valeriy Makarov & Albert Bakhtizin & Elena Sushko & Alina Ageeva, 2017. "Agent-Based Approach for Modelling the Labour Migration from China to Russia," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 331-341.
    2. Makarov, Valerii & Bakhtizin, Albert & Sushko, Elena & Ageeva, Alina, 2017. "Simulation of the socio-economic system of the Eurasian continent using the agent-based models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 48, pages 122-139.
    3. Jovan Žamac & Daniel Hallberg & Thomas Lindh, 2010. "Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector [Fécondité basse et croissance à long terme dans une économie à secteur public très développé]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 183-205, May.
    4. Zheng Wang & Zixuan Yao & Gaoxiang Gu & Fei Hu & Xiaoye Dai, 2014. "Multi-agent-based simulation on technology innovation-diffusion in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 385-408, June.
    5. Mazhar Sajjad & Karandeep Singh & Euihyun Paik & Chang-Won Ahn, 2016. "A Data-Driven Approach for Agent-Based Modeling: Simulating the Dynamics of Family Formation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 19(1), pages 1-9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Makarov, Valerii & Bakhtizin, Albert & Sushko, Elena & Ageeva, Alina, 2017. "Simulation of the socio-economic system of the Eurasian continent using the agent-based models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 48, pages 122-139.
    2. Zhai, Xueting & Zhong, Dixi & Luo, Qiuju, 2019. "Turn it around in crisis communication: An ABM approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Jovan Žamac & Daniel Hallberg & Thomas Lindh, 2010. "Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector [Fécondité basse et croissance à long terme dans une économie à secteur public très développé]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 183-205, May.
    4. Berde, Éva & Kovács, Eszter, 2016. "A svéd és a magyar termékenységi arányszám összehasonlítása [Comparison of Swedish and Hungarian fertility levels]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1348-1374.
    5. Gu, Gaoxiang & Wang, Zheng, 2018. "China’s carbon emissions abatement under industrial restructuring by investment restriction," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 133-144.
    6. Victor Sadovnichii & Gennady Osipov & Askar Akaev & Artemy Malkov & Sergey Shulgin, 2018. "Socio-Economic Effectiveness of the Development of the Railway Network in Siberia and the Far East: Mathematical Simulation and Forecast," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 758-777.
    7. David E. Bloom & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2010. "Economic Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers 5410, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    8. Zhangqi Zhong & Lingyun He, 2022. "Macro-Regional Economic Structural Change Driven by Micro-founded Technological Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Computational Economic Modeling Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 471-525, February.
    9. Gu, Gaoxiang & Wang, Zheng & Wu, Leying, 2021. "Carbon emission reductions under global low-carbon technology transfer and its policy mix with R&D improvement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(37), pages 963-998.
    11. Gu, Gaoxiang & Wang, Zheng, 2018. "Research on global carbon abatement driven by R&D investment in the context of INDCs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 662-675.
    12. Qiang Liu & Shengxia Xu & Xiaoli Lu, 2020. "Imbalance measurement of regional economic quality development: evidence from China," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(2), pages 527-556, October.
    13. David E. Bloom & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2010. "Introduction to Special Issue of the European Journal of Population: ‘Economic Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe’ [Introduction au numéro spécial de la Revue Européenne de Démographie: ‹ Cons," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 127-139, May.
    14. Masanori Hirano & Ryosuke Takata & Kiyoshi Izumi, 2023. "PAMS: Platform for Artificial Market Simulations," Papers 2309.10729, arXiv.org.
    15. Zhangqi, Zhong & Zhuli, Chen & Lingyun, He, 2022. "Technological innovation, industrial structural change and carbon emission transferring via trade-------An agent-based modeling approach," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Xiaodong Li & Li Huang & Ai Ren & Qi Li & Xuejin Zeng, 2022. "The Effect of Production Structure Roundaboutness on the Innovation Capability of High-Tech Enterprises—The Mediating Role of Technology Absorption Path," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, April.
    17. Florian Chávez-Juárez, 2017. "On the Role of Agent-based Modeling in the Theory of Development Economics," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 713-730, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2018:i:4:p:1102-1116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Naydenov (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economyofregion.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.