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The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records

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  • Maggie R. Jones
  • James P. Ziliak

Abstract

We reassess the antipoverty effects of the earned income tax credit (EITC) using unique data linking the Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement to Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data for the same individuals spanning tax years 2005–2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that the antipoverty estimates of the EITC are countercyclical in terms of number of recipients, with roughly four million people of all ages and 1.9 million children lifted from after-tax poverty in a typical year. We outline how researchers using public data can address discrepancies between survey estimates of the EITC and administrative tax records.

Suggested Citation

  • Maggie R. Jones & James P. Ziliak, 2022. "The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 451-479.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:nattax:doi:10.1086/720614
    DOI: 10.1086/720614
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    Cited by:

    1. Zachary Parolin & Megan Curran & Jordan Matsudaira & Jane Waldfogel & Christoper Wimer, 2021. "Estimating Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States," Poverty and Social Policy Brief 20415, Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University.
    2. Manasi Deshpande & Lee M. Lockwood, 2022. "Beyond Health: Nonhealth Risk and the Value of Disability Insurance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1781-1810, July.
    3. Otto Lenhart, 2023. "The earned income tax credit and food insecurity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1543-1570, October.
    4. Gloria G. Aldana, 2024. "Comparison of Child Reporting in the American Community Survey and Federal Income Tax Returns Based on California Birth Records," Working Papers 24-55, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Adam Bee & Joshua Mitchell & Nikolas Mittag & Jonathan Rothbaum & Carl Sanders & Lawrence Schmidt & Matthew Unrath, 2023. "National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics - Version 1," Working Papers 23-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. David Brady & Zachary Parolin, 2020. "The Levels and Trends in Deep and Extreme Poverty in the United States, 1993–2016," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2337-2360, December.
    7. Parolin, Zachary & Glasner, Benjamin & Mincy, Ronald & Wimer, Christopher, 2025. "The Earned Income Tax Credit and the Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty," INET Oxford Working Papers 2025-22, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    8. David Brady & Alexis Bocanegra & Diana Cervantes & Lauren Macy & Nasdira Romero Saravia, 2025. "The Heterogeneities of Immigrant Poverty in the U.S," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-31, August.
    9. Lisa A. Gennetian & Anna Gassman-Pines, 2023. "The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Parents’ Psychological Well-Being," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 124-140, November.
    10. Zachary Parolin & Megan Curran & Jordan Matsudaira & Jane Waldfogel & Christopher Wimer, 2022. "Estimating Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 1177-1203, September.
    11. Bastian, Jacob E. & Jones, Maggie R., 2021. "Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    12. Iselin, John & Mackay, Taylor & Unrath, Matthew, 2023. "Measuring take-up of the California EITC with state administrative data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    13. Margaret E. Brehm & Olga Malkova, 2023. "The Child Tax Credit over Time by Family Type: Benefit Eligibility and Poverty," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 707-741.

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