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An Assessment of Global Formula Apportionment

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  • Ruud De Mooij
  • Li Liu
  • Dinar Prihardini

Abstract

Global formula apportionment as a way to attribute taxable profits of multinationals across jurisdictions is receiving increased attention in recent debates on the future of the international tax framework. This paper exploits different data sets to assess the direct revenue implications of formula apportionment, both globally and for individual countries, under alternative formulas. The aggregate tax base is estimated to fall by approximately 10 percent due to cross-border loss consolidation. The associated loss in global corporate income tax revenue is smaller, though, between 5 and 8 percent depending on the formula, as profit shifting is mitigated. The distributional effects across countries are found to be large, reflecting major discrepancies between where profits are currently attributed and where factors of production are located or sales take place. The largest losses appear in low-tax jurisdictions and investment hubs (i.e., countries with a disproportionate ratio of foreign direct investment to gross domestic product), while several large advanced countries are likely to gain. Developing countries most likely gain if employment receives a large weight in the formula; they also tend to benefit, on average, from a formula based on sales by destination. The paper also reviews the literature on dynamic effects of formula apportionment, which may significantly alter the results based on static analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruud De Mooij & Li Liu & Dinar Prihardini, 2021. "An Assessment of Global Formula Apportionment," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 431-465.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:nattax:doi:10.1086/714112
    DOI: 10.1086/714112
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Garcia-Bernardo & Petr Janský & Thomas Tørsløv, 2021. "Multinational corporations and tax havens: evidence from country-by-country reporting," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1519-1561, December.
    2. Javier Garcia-Bernardo & Petr Janský & Thomas Tørsløv, 2022. "Decomposing Multinational Corporations’ Declining Effective Tax Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 338-381, June.
    3. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Janský, Petr, 2024. "Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Sebastian Beer & Ruud de Mooij & Shafik Hebous & Michael Keen & Li Liu, 2023. "Exploring Residual Profit Allocation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 70-109, February.
    5. Rosella Levaggi & Carmen Marchiori & Paolo M. Panteghini, 2022. "Lifestyle taxes in the presence of profit shifting," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 81-96, September.
    6. Wolfram F. Richter, 2022. "Granting Market Countries the Right to Tax Profit without Physical Nexus," CESifo Working Paper Series 9556, CESifo.
    7. Kempkes, Gerhard & Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "Re-allocating taxing rights and minimum tax rates in international profit taxation," Discussion Papers 03/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Małecka-Ziembińska Edyta & Siwiec Anna, 2020. "Searching for similarities in EU corporate income taxes for their harmonization," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(4), pages 72-94, December.

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