Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) as instruments for promoting national development agendas? An analysis of small island developing states (SIDS)

The ‘bottom up’ formulation of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement is an opportunity for countries to promote synergies between climate action and other development priorities. We hypothesize that countries will have prepared the NDCs strategically such that they reinforce national development agendas. This, we argue, makes sense for countries trying to tackle many social, economic and environmental challenges simultaneously and with limited resources. Examining seven Small Island Developing States (SIDS), we compare the priorities described in their NDCs with those in their national development plans. We find most NDC actions relate generally to themes in the respective national development plan, but the range of sectors they include as climate priorities is narrow and does not reflect the spread of national development agendas. Those sectors most emphasised by SIDS’ development plans – governance and institutions, economic management, education, health, transport and land use planning – tend not to be included in NDCs at all. This is surprising for adaptation priorities, given the necessity of addressing not only climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, water and coastal zone management but of also tackling the contextual conditions that make communities vulnerable in the first place. We suggest these patterns may be the result of normative and/or material biases that shape thinking about which sectors are climate-relevant. This is limiting the positive reinforcement that NDCs might otherwise give to development agendas, and is a missed opportunity for policy coherence and greater resilience building.Key policy insights The NDCs provide an opportunity for countries to identify climate actions that also strengthen their sustainable development agendas, which would incentivize their implementation and strengthen the NDC concept going forward.The way adaptation priorities are being defined in the NDCs of SIDS appears limited to a narrow range of sectors that are sensitive to climate impacts.Broadening the way adaptation priorities are identified would, going forward, likely create stronger synergies between the NDCs and national development plans, and would also improve climate resilience outcomes.