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Fertility in China: An uncertain future

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  • Stuart Basten
  • Quanbao Jiang

Abstract

As one of the world's two population 'billionaires', the future of China's population is truly of global significance. With its very low fertility and a rapidly ageing population, it might appear that the country's famous (or notorious) family planning restrictions are somewhat anachronistic. Here, we explore the process of reform seen over the past three decades and, most recently, in late 2013. We suggest that the popular notion that the family planning restrictions are acting as a pressure valve suppressing a pent-up demand for childbearing, particularly in rural China, is likely to be inaccurate. We also suggest that further reform of the restrictions will not solve the problems of population ageing or many of the other issues widely associated with the restrictions. We conclude that the prospects for further reform are wide-ranging, but likely to be beset by many challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart Basten & Quanbao Jiang, 2015. "Fertility in China: An uncertain future," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(sup1), pages 97-105, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:s97-s105
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.982898
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    3. Ling Yang & Kai Zhao & Zhen Fan, 2019. "Exploring Determinants of Population Ageing in Northeast China: From a Socio-Economic Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Wolfgang Lutz, 2020. "Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 63-70.
    5. Wolfgang Lutz, 2017. "Education empowers women to reach their personal fertility target, regardless of what the target is," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 027-31.
    6. Rui Lu & Anne Gauthier & Gert Stulp, 2023. "Fertility preferences in China in the twenty-first century," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 1-30, June.
    7. Feng Wang & Yong Cai & Ke Shen & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2018. "Is Demography Just a Numerical Exercise? Numbers, Politics, and Legacies of China’s One-Child Policy," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(2), pages 693-719, April.
    8. Yongkun Yin, 2022. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility: Evidence from China’s Population Control Policies," Working Papers wp2022_2211, CEMFI.
    9. Chen, Shuang & Gietel-Basten, Stuart, 2023. "How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118545, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Zhen Li & Yu Zhu & Yingji Wu, 2024. "Migrant Optimism in Educational Aspirations for Children in Big Cities in China: A Case Study of Native, Permanent Migrant and Temporary Migrant Parents in Shanghai," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(1), pages 1-30, February.
    11. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Shuang Chen, 2022. "The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 125-161, March.

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