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Bubble detection and sector trading in real time

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  • George Milunovich
  • Shuping Shi
  • David Tan

Abstract

We conduct a pseudo real-time analysis of the existence and extent of speculative bubbles in 11+ US sectors over the period January 1973–May 2015. Based on computed bubble signals, a trading strategy is constructed which switches funds between the market index and those industry sectors that exhibit bubble dynamics. Our strategy generates the highest after-transaction-cost return and Sharpe ratio, and first-order stochastically dominates a range of alternative strategies we consider, including the buy-and-hold investment in the market index. Subsample analysis and specification checks confirm the robustness of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • George Milunovich & Shuping Shi & David Tan, 2019. "Bubble detection and sector trading in real time," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 247-263, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:19:y:2019:i:2:p:247-263
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2018.1459811
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    Cited by:

    1. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2020. "Mildly explosive dynamics in U.S. fixed income markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 712-724.
    2. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Gabriele Mingoli, 2023. "Observation-Driven filters for Time-Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-065/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Blasques, Francisco & Koopman, Siem Jan & Nientker, Marc, 2022. "A time-varying parameter model for local explosions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 65-84.
    4. Robert A. Jarrow & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Inferring financial bubbles from option data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 1013-1046, November.
    5. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo, 2021. "The international spread of COVID-19 stock market collapses," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    6. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping & Tan, David, 2022. "Gold as a financial instrument," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Lukas Wiechers, 2022. "An Early Indicator for Anomalous Stock Market Performance," Working Papers CIE 153, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    8. Yang, Hui & Ferrer, Román, 2023. "Explosive behavior in the Chinese stock market: A sectoral analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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