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Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

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  • D. R. Glen
  • B. T. Martin

Abstract

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are ‘risker’ assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.

Suggested Citation

  • D. R. Glen & B. T. Martin, 1998. "Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 117-128, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:25:y:1998:i:2:p:117-128
    DOI: 10.1080/03088839800000023
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Drobetz & Tim Richter & Martin Wambach, 2012. "Dynamics of time-varying volatility in the dry bulk and tanker freight markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(16), pages 1367-1384, August.
    2. Glen, D.R. & Martin, B.T., 2004. "2. A Survey Of The Modelling Of Dry Bulk And Tanker Markets," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 19-64, January.
    3. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Talley, Wayne K., 2011. "Vessel and voyage determinants of tanker freight rates and contract times," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 665-675, September.
    4. Zheng, Shiyuan & Lan, Xiangang, 2016. "Multifractal analysis of spot rates in tanker markets and their comparisons with crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 547-559.
    5. Jiao Zhang & Qingcheng Zeng, 2017. "Modelling the volatility of the tanker freight market based on improved empirical mode decomposition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(17), pages 1655-1667, April.
    6. Theodore Syriopoulos & Michael Tsatsaronis & Ioannis Karamanos, 2021. "Support Vector Machine Algorithms: An Application to Ship Price Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 55-87, January.
    7. Yung-Shun Chen & Shiu-Tung Wang, 2004. "The empirical evidence of the leverage effect on volatility in international bulk shipping market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 109-124, April.
    8. Haralambides, H.E. & Tsolakis, S.D. & Cridland, C., 2004. "3. Econometric Modelling Of Newbuilding And Secondhand Ship Prices," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 65-105, January.

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