IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jriskr/v5y2002i2p177-186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of translations of verbal into numerical probability expressions in risk management: a meta-analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Theil

Abstract

Translations of verbal into numerical probability expressions play a central role in risk management, for instance when assessing risks or when choosing appropriate measures to handle them. Despite the fact that the issue of probability translations has been widely studied in the past, results have remained quite isolated. The present work sets out to provide a meta-analysis of previous work, focussing on the most frequently used expressions. It turns out that the numerical ratings for verbal expressions differ considerably between studies. Subsequent analysis is devoted to distances between the results and to differences in methodology. Although there is significant disagreement on which figure represents a particular verbal probability best, methodology was not found to be a decisive factor. The study clearly shows that there is no consensus about probability translations and that attempts to codify word-number-pairs come too early. For such general purposes, the present study helps to distinguish between similarly versus inconsistently rated expressions instead.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Theil, 2002. "The role of translations of verbal into numerical probability expressions in risk management: a meta-analysis," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 177-186, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:177-186
    DOI: 10.1080/13669870110038179
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669870110038179
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13669870110038179?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Teigen, Karl Halvor & Juanchich, Marie & Løhre, Erik, 2022. "What is a “likely” amount? Representative (modal) values are considered likely even when their probabilities are low," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Robert N. Collins & David R. Mandel, 2019. "Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(6), pages 683-695, November.
    3. Marie Juanchich & Karl Halvor Teigen & Am'elie Gourdon, 2013. "Top scores are possible, bottom scores are certain (and middle scores are not worth mentioning): A pragmatic view of verbal probabilities," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(3), pages 345-364, May.
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:345-364 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Vivianne H. M. Visschers & Ree M. Meertens & Wim W. F. Passchier & Nanne N. K. De Vries, 2009. "Probability Information in Risk Communication: A Review of the Research Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 267-287, February.
    6. Fischer, Caroline, 2018. "Beraten statt archivieren. Wie öffentlich Beschäftigte ihr Wissen am Arbeitsplatz teilen," OSF Preprints gx6d3, Center for Open Science.
    7. Ahti Salo & Edoardo Tosoni & Juho Roponen & Derek W. Bunn, 2022. "Using cross‐impact analysis for probabilistic risk assessment," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.
    8. Boman, Mattias, 2009. "To pay or not to pay for biodiversity in forests - What scale determines responses to willingness to pay questions with uncertain response options?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 79-91, January.
    9. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:6:p:683-695 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Riege, Anine H. & Teigen, Karl Halvor, 2013. "Additivity neglect in probability estimates: Effects of numeracy and response format," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 41-52.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:177-186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJRR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.