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Transnational Transmitters: Ethnic Kinship Ties and Conflict Contagion 1946--2009

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  • Erika Forsberg

Abstract

Previous research has proposed that ethnic conflict may spread across borders. Although the importance of transnational ethnic groups is often emphasized, the processes through which contagion may take place remain unspecified. The present study presents a context for more precise analysis of contagion. Further, it identifies distinct processes through which contagion is likely to occur within this context. It is argued that when an ethnic group engages in violent conflict in one state, kin in a nearby state may be inspired to rebel because the outbreak of conflict renders ethnic bonds and similar conditions salient. These bonds and similarities become even more salient when the kin group has opportunities and willingness to mobilize for rebellion. Statistical analysis employing unique global data covering 1946--2009 supports this argument. These results indicate that kinship ties matter for contagion and identify some of the conditions which amplify the effects such ties have for contagion.

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  • Erika Forsberg, 2014. "Transnational Transmitters: Ethnic Kinship Ties and Conflict Contagion 1946--2009," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 143-165, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:40:y:2014:i:2:p:143-165
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2014.880702
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    Cited by:

    1. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    2. Alessandro Belmonte & Désirée Teobaldelli & Davide Ticchi, 2023. "Tax morale, fiscal capacity, and war," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 445-474, June.
    3. Margarita Konaev & Kirstin J.H. Brathwaite, 2019. "Dangerous neighborhoods: State behavior and the spread of ethnic conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(5), pages 447-468, September.
    4. Zeki Sarigil, 2021. "A micro-level analysis of the contagion effect: Evidence from the Kurdish conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(4), pages 763-777, July.
    5. Moyer, Jonathan D., 2023. "Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

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