Evaluating Uncertainty In Risk-Based Interdependency Modeling With Interval Arithmetic
Several sources of uncertainty exist in the effort to quantify the efficacy of preparedness decision-making in interdependent systems. For the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM), a risk-based extension of the traditional Leontief model, which describes the propagation of inoperability throughout interconnected economic sectors, uncertainty is manifested in parameters describing the strength of interdependencies among sectors and in parameters describing the adverse impacts of a disruptive event, among others. As the model is used to evaluate preparedness options to reduce the impact of these disruptive events, such uncertainty can impact decision-making efforts. This paper introduces interval arithmetic as an approach for dealing with uncertainties in the IIM when probability distributions are not known and only variable bounds are available. Illustrative examples highlight the use of the approach as well as a means to improve the evaluation and comparison of risk management strategies in interdependent systems when only intervals are known.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 23 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CESR20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CESR20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:23:y:2011:i:2:p:213-232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.