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The military recruiting productivity slowdown: The roles of resources, opportunity cost and the tastes of youth

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  • John Warner
  • Curtis Simon
  • Deborah Payne

Abstract

After a decade of successful recruiting, the US military began experiencing recruiting difficulties in the 1990s. Cyclical factors as well as trend factors may have played a role. This paper uses monthly data by state over the period 1989-1997 to estimate models of enlistment and evaluate the various explanations for the recruiting slowdown. Estimates of the impact of economic variables - relative military pay and unemployment - and recruiting resource variables - recruiters and advertising - are similar to those in previous studies. Two trend factors, rising college attendance and declining adult veteran population (influencers), are found to be important factors explaining the decline in enlistment.

Suggested Citation

  • John Warner & Curtis Simon & Deborah Payne, 2003. "The military recruiting productivity slowdown: The roles of resources, opportunity cost and the tastes of youth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 329-342.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:5:p:329-342
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690302923
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bäckström, Peter, 2020. "Essays on Military Labour Supply in the Era of Voluntary Recruitment," Umeå Economic Studies 965, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    2. Vladan Holcner & Monika Davidová & Jiří Neubauer & Ľubomír Kubínyi & Aloiz Flachbart, . "Military Recruitment and Czech Labour Market," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 0.
    3. Barr, Andrew, 2016. "Enlist or enroll: Credit constraints, college aid, and the military enlistment margin," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 61-78.
    4. Paco Martorell & Damon Clark, 2010. "The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma," Working Papers 1248, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Bäckström, Peter, 2019. "Self-Selection and Recruit Quality in Sweden’s All Volunteer Force: Do Civilian Opportunities Matter?," Umeå Economic Studies 964, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    6. Paco Martorell & Damon Clark, 2010. "The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma," Working Papers 1248, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    7. Vera Mironova & Sam Whitt, 2020. "Mobilizing civilians into high-risk forms of violent collective action," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 391-405, May.
    8. Vladan Holcner & Monika Davidová & Jiří Neubauer & Ľubomír Kubínyi & Aloiz Flachbart, 2021. "Military Recruitment and Czech Labour Market," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(4), pages 489-505.
    9. Bäckström, Peter, 2023. "Empirical Essays on Military Service and the Labour Market," Umeå Economic Studies 1012, Umeå University, Department of Economics.

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