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Resolving contradictions in Indonesian fertility estimates


  • Terence Hull
  • Wendy Hartanto


Over the last half-century Indonesia has been concerned about excessive population growth. To reduce the levels of fertility the government in 1968 established a national family planning program. In the following three decades fertility levels fell from over five to under three children per woman. In the past decade questions have arisen about the validity and reliability of fertility estimates. Increasingly Indonesia's Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) have reported higher fertility than is recorded in the censuses and other large social sample surveys. In 2007 the discrepancy reached more than half a child on average. This paper reveals one of the major causes of the discrepancy and shows ways to adjust the DHS results to gain more reliable measures. At present Indonesian national fertility is very close to the policy target of replacement levels by the year 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence Hull & Wendy Hartanto, 2009. "Resolving contradictions in Indonesian fertility estimates," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 61-71.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:45:y:2009:i:1:p:61-71
    DOI: 10.1080/00074910902836197

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    Cited by:

    1. Yong Cai, 2010. "China's Below-Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 419-440.
    2. Michael Grimm & Robert Sparrow & Luca Tasciotti, 2015. "Does Electrification Spur the Fertility Transition? Evidence From Indonesia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(5), pages 1773-1796, October.
    3. Thomas Spoorenberg, 2014. "Reverse survival method of fertility estimation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(9), pages 217-246, July.

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