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Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data

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  • Jiawen Luo
  • Langnan Chen
  • Weiguo Zhang

Abstract

This article identifies the breakdowns in the covariance of three benchmark crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and investigates the changes of market connectedness across the breakdown periods. As the crude oil futures are traded in different regions, this article eliminates the non-synchronous trading data by employing the Vector Moving Average structure and the Bayesian data augmentation approach, which keeps the integrity of original data without changing its properties. The results show that there are significant breaks in the covariance structure of crude oil futures markets. The breakdown periods are consistent with the periods when the market volatilities are at high level and the returns are volatile. The changes of market connectedness are independent of the covariance states, which supports the globalization hypothesis for the crude oil market. The results also suggest that there is more information flow out of the WTI than to the WTI during the sample period, particularly during the breakdown periods in 2008–2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiawen Luo & Langnan Chen & Weiguo Zhang, 2019. "Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 422-443, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:5:p:422-443
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1489510
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chowdhury, Kushal Banik & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Fresh evidence on the oil-stock interactions under heterogeneous market conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2019. "Forecasting stock returns with cycle-decomposed predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 250-261.
    3. Niyati Bhanja & Samia Nasreen & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "Connectedness in International Crude Oil Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 227-262, January.
    4. Hardik A. Marfatia & Qiang Ji & Jiawen Luo, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of agricultural commodity futures: The role of co‐volatility and oil volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 383-404, March.
    5. Jiawen Luo & Langnan Chen, 2019. "Multivariate realized volatility forecasts of agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1565-1586, December.
    6. Luo, Jiawen & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Ji, Qiang & Klein, Tony, 2023. "Co-volatility and asymmetric transmission of risks between the global oil and China's futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

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