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Forecasting inflation in an inflation targeting economy: structural versus nonstructural models

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  • Rangan Gupta

Abstract

We propose a comparison between atheoretical and theoretical models in forecasting the inflation rate for an inflation-targeting country such as South Africa. In a pseudo real-time environment, our results show that for shorter horizons, the atheoretical error correction models, with and without factors, perform better; while for longer horizons, theoretical (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium-based) models outperform their competitors.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in an inflation targeting economy: structural versus nonstructural models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(24), pages 2316-2321, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:24:p:2316-2321
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1237760
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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