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Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: are there any causal linkages?

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  • Bernd Kempa
  • Nazmus Sadat Khan

Abstract

This article investigates the direction of Granger-causality between debt and growth in the G7 countries using quarterly data from 1980 to 2013. We analyse the causal structure both in level data using the Toda and Yamamoto causality test, and with differenced data by means of dynamic impulse response analysis. Results indicate that growth causes debt rather than the other way around. We find the effect of growth on debt to be unambiguously negative in all cases of significant causality, but to be a short- to medium-run phenomenon with no lasting impact. We also find that results are sensitive to the sample period, with causality from growth to debt much more prevalent when the sample period includes the recent financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Kempa & Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2016. "Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: are there any causal linkages?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 440-443, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:23:y:2016:i:6:p:440-443
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1080797
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    Cited by:

    1. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2016. "In search of causality between debt and growth: a graph theoretic approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 677-687.
    2. N. Mhlaba & A. Phiri, 2019. "Is public debt harmful towards economic growth? New evidence from South Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1603653-160, January.
    3. Ignat Ignatov, 2021. "Unravelling the EU Debt Knot Over 2000-2019: An Injection-Leakage Approach," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 49-71.
    4. Caraballo-Cueto Jose & Lara Juan, 2017. "Deindustrialization and Unsustainable Debt in Middle-Income Countries: The Case of Puerto Rico," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Gómez, David Matesanz & Seijas, Maria Nela, 2017. "Debt and growth: A non-parametric approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 883-894.
    6. Carsten Colombier & Christian Breuer, 2020. "Debt and growth: historical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2594-2609.
    7. Helmut Herwartz & Malte Rengel, 2018. "Size-corrected inference in fiscal policy reaction functions: a three country assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 391-416, September.
    8. Kempa, Bernd & Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2017. "Spillover effects of debt and growth in the euro area: Evidence from a GVAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 102-111.
    9. James W. Douglas & Ringa Raudla, 2020. "Who is Afraid of the Big Bad Debt? A Modern Money Theory Perspective on Federal Deficits and Debt," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 6-25, September.
    10. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.

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