Evaluating state tax revenue variability: a portfolio approach
This article develops a volatility model based on portfolio theory to examine state tax revenue variability. Unlike traditional parametric methods used to analyse state tax revenue variability, the portfolio approach allows the computation of a tax's share of total tax revenue that minimizes the overall variability in total state tax revenue given a state's portfolio of tax revenue sources. The model can thus be used to evaluate how closely a state's revenue portfolio is constructed to minimize variability in total state tax revenue. An empirical application of the model is conducted on a sample of US states. The volatility model presented here serves as a useful complement to parametric techniques that have been used to estimate tax revenue variability.
Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Tim Besley, 2002.
"Political institutions and policy choices: evidence from the United States,"
IFS Working Papers
W02/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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- Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 535-52, December.
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