IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spt/apfiba/v1y2011i1f1_1_1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determining the Probability of Default of Agricultural Loans in a French Bank

Author

Listed:
  • Amelie Jouault
  • Allen M. Featherstone

Abstract

Recently, financial institutions have developed improved internal risk rating systems and emphasized the probability of default and loss given default. The default characteristics are studied for 756 loans from a French bank: CIC- Banque SNVB. A binomial logit regression is used to estimate several models of the probability of default of agribusiness loans based on information available at loan origination. The results show that leverage, profitability and liquidity at loan origination are statistically significant indicators of the probability of default. As leverage increases, profitability decreases, or liquidity decreases, the probability of default increases. As the length of loan increases, the probability of default also increases. Finally, it is more accurate to develop a model for each type of collateral (activity). By developing more quantitative credit scoring models,banks may benefit from lower capital requirements while borrowers may see better rates where the risk of loans is appropriately priced.

Suggested Citation

  • Amelie Jouault & Allen M. Featherstone, 2011. "Determining the Probability of Default of Agricultural Loans in a French Bank," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:1:y:2011:i:1:f:1_1_1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scienpress.com/Upload/JAFB%2fVol%201_1_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allen N. Berger & David C. Smith, 2003. "Global integration in the banking industry," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 89(Nov), pages 451-460, November.
    2. Allen M. Featherstone & Laura M. Roessler & Peter J. Barry, 2006. "Determining the Probability of Default and Risk-Rating Class for Loans in the Seventh Farm Credit District Portfolio," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 4-23.
    3. Allen M. Featherstone & Christian R. Boessen, 1994. "Loan Loss Severity of Agricultural Mortgages," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 249-258.
    4. Roger D. Stover & R. Kenneth Teas & Roy J. Gardner, 1985. "Agricultural Lending Decision: A Multiattribute Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 513-520.
    5. Ani L. Katchova & Peter J. Barry, 2005. "Credit Risk Models and Agricultural Lending," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(1), pages 194-205.
    6. Kenneth Obrecht, 1989. "The Role of Credit Evaluations in Agricultural Research: Discussion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1155-1156.
    7. Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000. "Evaluating credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January.
    8. Cole R. Gustafson & Glenn D. Pederson & Brent A. Gloy, 2005. "Credit risk assessment," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 201-217, July.
    9. Gustafson, Cole R. & Beyer, Ronald J. & Saxowsky, David M., 1991. "Credit Evaluation: Investigating the Decision Process of Agricultural Loan Officers," 1991 Regional Committee NC-161, September 23-24, 1991, St. Louis, Missouri 130940, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jarko Fidrmuc & Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms and Loan Defaults," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, May.
    2. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark, 2010. "Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Internal Migrations in Brazil," Conference papers 331926, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Escalante, Cesar L. & Brooks, Rodney L. & Epperson, James E. & Stegelin, Forrest E., 2006. "Credit Risk Assessment and Racial Minority Lending at the Farm Service Agency," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 61-75, April.
    2. Dressler, Jonathan B. & Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Mortgage Termination at AgChoice Farm Credit," 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006, Washington, DC 133077, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    3. Tseng, Jauling, 1996. "Farmer-borrowers' selection of short- and intermediate-term loan contracts: traditional lenders versus nontraditional lenders," ISU General Staff Papers 1996010108000012129, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Durguner, Seda & Barry, Peter J. & Katchova, Ani L., 2006. "Credit Scoring Models: A Comparison between Crop and Livestock Farms," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21431, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Allen M. Featherstone & Christine A. Wilson & Terry L. Kastens & John D. Jones, 2007. "Factors affecting the agricultural loan decision‐making process," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 67(1), pages 13-33, May.
    6. Frederick Murdoch Quaye & Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska, 2017. "Factors Affecting Farm Loan Delinquency in the Southeast," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 75-92, December.
    7. Quaye, Frederick & Hartarska, Valentina & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2015. "Farmer Credit Delinquency in Southeastern US: Factors and Behavior Prediction," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196914, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Pederson, Glenn D. & Chu, Yu-Szu & Richardson, D. Wynn, 2011. "Community Bank Assessment of Agricultural Portfolio Risk Exposure: The Literature and the Methods in Use," Staff Papers 107483, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    10. Jarko Fidrmuc & Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms and Loan Defaults," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, May.
    11. Geoffroy Enjolras & Philippe Madiès, 2019. "The determinants of loan acceptance: a case study of French farms," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 358-371.
    12. Arribas Ivan & Perez Francisco & Tortosa-Ausina Emili, 2010. "The Determinants of International Financial Integration Revisited: The Role of Networks and Geographic Neutrality," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-55, December.
    13. Tsukahara, Fábio Yasuhiro & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Zambrano, Juan Carlos Arismendi, 2016. "Validation of default probability models: A stress testing approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-85.
    14. Ji, Tingting, 2004. "Consumer Credit Delinquency And Bankruptcy Forecasting Using Advanced Econometrc Modeling," MPRA Paper 3187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Wei, Jason Z., 2003. "A multi-factor, credit migration model for sovereign and corporate debts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 709-735, October.
    16. Sonka, Steven T. & Khoju, Madhab R., 1989. "Empirical Studies Of Firm Viability, Profitability, And Growth," 1989 Conference, January 7-10, Tucson, Arizona 260159, Regional Research Committe NC-181: Determinants of Farm Size and Structure.
    17. Wilson, Brooks M. & Cobia, David W., 1996. "Agricultural Loan Officers' Roles In Cooperative Investment In North Dakota," Agricultural Economics Reports 23207, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    18. Harris, James Michael & Blank, Steven C. & Erickson, Kenneth W. & Hallahan, Charles B., 2010. "Off-farm Income and Investments in Farm Assets: A Double Hurdle Approach," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61531, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Maximilian J.B. Hall, 2001. "The basle Committee's proposals for a new capital adequacy assessment framework: a critique," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(217), pages 111-179.
    20. Colletaz, Gilbert & Hurlin, Christophe & Pérignon, Christophe, 2013. "The Risk Map: A new tool for validating risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3843-3854.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:1:y:2011:i:1:f:1_1_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.scienpress.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.