IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v38y2024i3d10.1007_s11269-023-03703-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate Change and Multi-Reservoirs Impacts on Extreme Flood: Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis and Uncertainty Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Hong Du

    (South-Central Minzu University)

  • Jun Xia

    (Wuhan University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Sidong Zeng

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yike Tu

    (South-Central Minzu University)

Abstract

The nonstationary impacts of climate change and multi-reservoirs on extreme floods cannot be ignored due to the potential risk to flood control and river security. Nonstationary regional flood frequency analysis (NS-RFFA) provides an effective way to consider these influences. But there is currently no standard framework of NS-RFFA and insufficient consideration of uncertainty in quantile estimates. In the study, we proposed an improved framework of NS-RFFA considering the influence of multi-reservoirs as well as climate change and involving uncertainty estimation. The framework was applied to analyze the frequency of extreme floods in the Huai River Basin (HRB) where multi-reservoirs have been constructed and to reveal the extreme flood variation under the impact of climate change and reservoir group. Results show that precipitation during flood season and reservoir index played a dominant role in the variations of annual maximum streamflow in the HRB. The impact of reservoirs was more significant in the upstream tributaries than in the mainstream. The nonstationary models with location parameters varying with time and/or main influencing factors perform better on fitting extreme streamflow in the HRB compared with stationary and at-site analysis. The quantile estimates and their uncertainty based on NS-RFFA are dynamic, which gives an expression of the changing environment effects on annual maximum streamflow. Thus, our work contributes an improved framework of NS-RFFA considering the influence of climate change and reservoirs, providing more accurate and reliable estimates for river flood risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Du & Jun Xia & Sidong Zeng & Yike Tu, 2024. "Climate Change and Multi-Reservoirs Impacts on Extreme Flood: Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis and Uncertainty Estimation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(3), pages 951-965, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03703-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03703-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-023-03703-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-023-03703-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peng Shi & Chao Chen & Ragahavan Srinivasan & Xuesong Zhang & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang & Simin Qu & Xi Chen & Qiongfang Li, 2011. "Evaluating the SWAT Model for Hydrological Modeling in the Xixian Watershed and a Comparison with the XAJ Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2595-2612, August.
    2. Ting Wei & Songbai Song, 2019. "Utilization of the Copula-Based Composite Likelihood Approach to Improve Design Precipitation Estimates Accuracy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5089-5106, December.
    3. Yifan Jia & Songbai Song & Liting Ge, 2023. "Trimmed L-Moments of the Pearson Type III Distribution for Flood Frequency Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1321-1340, February.
    4. Yuyin Liang & Shuguang Liu & Yiping Guo & Hong Hua, 2017. "L-Moment-Based Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Extreme Precipitation and its Uncertainty Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3899-3919, September.
    5. Menghao Wang & Shanhu Jiang & Liliang Ren & Chong-Yu Xu & Linyong Wei & Hao Cui & Fei Yuan & Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang, 2022. "The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1377-1392, March.
    6. Shuhui Guo & Lihua Xiong & Jie Chen & Shenglian Guo & Jun Xia & Ling Zeng & Chong-Yu Xu, 2023. "Nonstationary Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Based on the Bayesian Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 659-681, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qianyu Gao & Guofang Li & Jin Bao & Jian Wang, 2021. "Regional Frequency Analysis Based on Precipitation Regionalization Accounting for Temporal Variability and a Nonstationary Index Flood Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4435-4456, October.
    2. Lu Zhuo & Dawei Han & Qiang Dai & Tanvir Islam & Prashant Srivastava, 2015. "Appraisal of NLDAS-2 Multi-Model Simulated Soil Moistures for Hydrological Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3503-3517, August.
    3. Ferdous Ahmed, 2012. "A Hydrologic Model of Kemptville Basin—Calibration and Extended Validation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2583-2604, July.
    4. Menghao Wang & Shanhu Jiang & Liliang Ren & Chong-Yu Xu & Linyong Wei & Hao Cui & Fei Yuan & Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang, 2022. "The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1377-1392, March.
    5. Ali Suliman & Milad Jajarmizadeh & Sobri Harun & Intan Mat Darus, 2015. "Comparison of Semi-Distributed, GIS-Based Hydrological Models for the Prediction of Streamflow in a Large Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3095-3110, July.
    6. Peng Shi & Xinxin Ma & Yuanbing Hou & Qiongfang Li & Zhicai Zhang & Simin Qu & Chao Chen & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang, 2013. "Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1263-1278, March.
    7. Samiran Das, 2020. "Assessing the Regional Concept with Sub-Sampling Approach to Identify Probability Distribution for at-Site Hydrological Frequency Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 803-817, January.
    8. Shawei He & Keith Hipel & D. Kilgour, 2014. "Water Diversion Conflicts in China: A Hierarchical Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1823-1837, May.
    9. Jiqiang Lyu & Yuhao Yang & Shanshan Yin & Zhizhou Yang & Zhaohui Zhou & Yan Wang & Pingping Luo & Meng Jiao & Aidi Huo, 2024. "Effects of Environmental Changes on Flood Patterns in the Jing River Basin: A Case Study from the Loess Plateau, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-25, November.
    10. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    11. Pignalosa, Antonio & Silvestri, Nicola & Pugliese, Francesco & Corniello, Alfonso & Gerundo, Carlo & Del Seppia, Nicola & Lucchesi, Massimo & Coscini, Nicola & De Paola, Francesco & Giugni, Maurizio, 2022. "Long-term simulations of Nature-Based Solutions effects on runoff and soil losses in a flat agricultural area within the catchment of Lake Massaciuccoli (Central Italy)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    12. Brouziyne, Youssef & Abouabdillah, Aziz & Hirich, Abdelaziz & Bouabid, Rachid & Zaaboul, Rashyd & Benaabidate, Lahcen, 2018. "Modeling sustainable adaptation strategies toward a climate-smart agriculture in a Mediterranean watershed under projected climate change scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 154-163.
    13. Junzhe Zhang & Azhar Ali Laghari & Qingxia Guo & Jiyao Liang & Akash Kumar & Zhenghao Liu & Yongheng Shen & Yuehan Wei, 2024. "Evolution of Land Use and Its Hydrological Effects in the Fenhe River Basin Under the Production–Living–Ecological Space Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Wonjin Kim & Seongjoon Kim & Jinuk Kim & Jiwan Lee & Soyoung Woo & Sehoon Kim, 2022. "Assessment of Long-term Groundwater Use Increase and Forest Growth Impact on Watershed Hydrology," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5801-5821, December.
    15. Tiezhu Yan & Jianwen Bai & Amelia LEE ZHI YI & Zhenyao Shen, 2018. "SWAT-Simulated Streamflow Responses to Climate Variability and Human Activities in the Miyun Reservoir Basin by Considering Streamflow Components," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Vesna Đukić & Zoran Radić, 2016. "Sensitivity Analysis of a Physically Based Distributed Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1669-1684, March.
    17. Selome Tessema & Steve Lyon & Shimelis Setegn & Ulla Mörtberg, 2014. "Effects of Different Retention Parameter Estimation Methods on the Prediction of Surface Runoff Using the SCS Curve Number Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3241-3254, August.
    18. Yaoze Liu & Sisi Li & Carlington W. Wallace & Indrajeet Chaubey & Dennis C. Flanagan & Lawrence O. Theller & Bernard A. Engel, 2017. "Comparison of Computer Models for Estimating Hydrology and Water Quality in an Agricultural Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3641-3665, September.
    19. Everton Rocha & Maria Calijuri & Aníbal Santiago & Leonardo Assis & Luna Alves, 2012. "The Contribution of Conservation Practices in Reducing Runoff, Soil Loss, and Transport of Nutrients at the Watershed Level," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(13), pages 3831-3852, October.
    20. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03703-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.