IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i11d10.1007_s11069-025-07313-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme rainfall frequency distribution and its flood risk assessment in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Pengxin Deng

    (Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

  • Jianping Bing

    (Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

  • Leizhi Wang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

  • Lingjie Li

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

Abstract

The identification of flood hazards resulting from intense rainfall events is a critical task for flood management and disaster mitigation in river basins. This study utilizes extreme intensity and duration theory to analyze the frequency distribution of extreme rainfall and associated flood risk. By introducing equivalent daily rainfall intensity (Rf) and flood-waterlogging intensity index (Pf), a novel approach is proposed to evaluate flood-induced risk through frequency analysis. Results indicate spatio-temporal variability in extreme rainfall within the Upper Hanjiang River Basin, characterized by a higher frequency in the southern region and a lower frequency in the northern region. Rf is on average 33.9% higher than the maximum daily rainfall (RX1day), attributable to its capacity to capture multi-day accumulation effects. After comparing five distribution models, Rf follows the Pearson Type III distribution (P-III) and Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV), whereas Pf primarily follows the GEV distribution. Under a 20-year return period, UHRB registers Rf and Pf values of 157.3 mm and 2.14, respectively, with a pronounced south-to-north rainfall gradient featuring two distinct high-intensity cores: one localized in the southwestern mountainous terrain and the other in the northeastern low-mountain zone. Identified middle-high risk areas (25.4%) are concentrated in the region of Zhenba (ZB), Hanzhong (HZ), Shangnan (SN) and Shiyan (SY). The intensification of extreme rainfall events exacerbates flood risks. This study enhances flood risk evaluation methods and offers distribution maps for different-frequency extreme rainfall for the first time, supporting flood control, disaster reduction, water resource management, and basin engineering safety.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengxin Deng & Jianping Bing & Leizhi Wang & Lingjie Li, 2025. "Extreme rainfall frequency distribution and its flood risk assessment in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(11), pages 13173-13192, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07313-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07313-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07313-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-025-07313-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yifan Jia & Songbai Song & Liting Ge, 2023. "Trimmed L-Moments of the Pearson Type III Distribution for Flood Frequency Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1321-1340, February.
    2. Jenq-Tzong Shiau, 2020. "Effects of Gamma-Distribution Variations on SPI-Based Stationary and Nonstationary Drought Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2081-2095, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong Du & Jun Xia & Sidong Zeng & Yike Tu, 2024. "Climate Change and Multi-Reservoirs Impacts on Extreme Flood: Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis and Uncertainty Estimation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(3), pages 951-965, February.
    2. Jiqiang Lyu & Yuhao Yang & Shanshan Yin & Zhizhou Yang & Zhaohui Zhou & Yan Wang & Pingping Luo & Meng Jiao & Aidi Huo, 2024. "Effects of Environmental Changes on Flood Patterns in the Jing River Basin: A Case Study from the Loess Plateau, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-25, November.
    3. Neda Khanmohammadi & Hossein Rezaie & Javad Behmanesh, 2022. "Investigation of Drought Trend on the Basis of the Best Obtained Drought Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1355-1375, March.
    4. Lavinia Crișu & Andreea-Gabriela Zamfir & Alina Vlăduț & Sandu Boengiu & Daniel Simulescu & Oana Mititelu-Ionuș, 2025. "Assessing Vegetation Response to Drought in the Central Part of Oltenia Plain (Romania) Using Vegetation and Drought Indices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-28, March.
    5. Hanan Haj Ahmad & Dina A. Ramadan & Mohamed Aboshady, 2024. "Analyzing Chemical Decay in Environmental Nanomaterials Using Gamma Distribution with Hybrid Censoring Scheme," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Suvro Aon & Sujata Biswas, 2024. "Bivariate Assessment of Hydrological Drought of a Semi-Arid Basin and Investigation of Drought Propagation Using a Novel Cross Wavelet Transform Based Technique," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(8), pages 2977-3005, June.
    7. Zachary H. Hoylman & R. Kyle Bocinsky & Kelsey G. Jencso, 2022. "Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Adelena Gonçalves Maia & Miller Alonso Camargo-Valero & Mark A. Trigg & Amirul Khan, 2024. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(8), pages 2835-2850, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07313-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.