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Research on the Degree of Non-Stationarity in Extreme Precipitation in the Continental United States

Author

Listed:
  • Junbo Shao

    (Yangzhou University)

  • Jingcai Wang

    (Yangzhou University)

  • Wenyue Wang

    (Yangzhou University)

  • Fan Li

    (Yangzhou University)

  • Chen Wu

    (Yangzhou University)

Abstract

The non-stationarity of identifying hydrological extreme sequences is essential for understanding the patterns of hydrological systems and conducting reasonable risk assessments. Currently, research on detecting non-stationarity primarily determines whether the parameters of the sequence change through statistical tests. The study introduces the concept of distribution change to detect non-stationarity and proposes the Cumulative Distribution function Change Indicator (CDCI) to quantify the degree of non-stationarity in extreme sequences. Based on Hourly Precipitation Data from 102 U.S. Weather Stations, 1975–2021. Comparison with other methods commonly used for non-stationarity identification validates the reasonableness of CDCI. Additionally, it explores the relationship between non-stationarity, distribution, and return period based on CDCI. The research results demonstrate that: (1) Distribution change can reflect the non-stationarity of sequences, and CDCI is more sensitive compared to conventional non-stationarity identification methods; (2) By combining CDCI with return period change, the response of distribution to non-stationarity can be identified, including the location and degree of distributional change. The study demonstrates the feasibility and validity of distributional change being used as a measure of non-stationarity in hydrological extreme sequences. Furthermore, the results reveal the possible relationship between non-stationarity, distribution change, and return period change.

Suggested Citation

  • Junbo Shao & Jingcai Wang & Wenyue Wang & Fan Li & Chen Wu, 2024. "Research on the Degree of Non-Stationarity in Extreme Precipitation in the Continental United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(2), pages 537-551, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03683-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03683-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chi Zhang & Xuezhi Gu & Lei Ye & Qian Xin & Xiaoyang Li & Hairong Zhang, 2023. "Climate Informed Non-stationary Modeling of Extreme Precipitation in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3319-3341, July.
    2. Fatemeh Yavari & Seyyed Ali Salehi Neyshabouri & Jafar Yazdi & Amir Molajou & Adam Brysiewicz, 2022. "A Novel Framework for Urban Flood damage Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 1991-2011, April.
    3. Saiyan Liu & Shengzhi Huang & Yangyang Xie & Hao Wang & Guoyong Leng & Qiang Huang & Xiaoting Wei & Lu Wang, 2019. "Identification of the Non-stationarity of Floods: Changing Patterns, Causes, and Implications," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(3), pages 939-953, February.
    4. Sadık Alashan, 2018. "Data Analysis in Nonstationary State," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2277-2286, May.
    5. V. Agilan & N. V. Umamahesh, 2017. "Non-Stationary Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationship: a Comparison between Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1825-1841, April.
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