IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i8d10.1007_s11069-025-07119-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Advancing innovative trend analysis for drought trends: incorporating drought classification frequencies for comprehensive insights

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad Abu Arra

    (Yildiz Technical University
    An-Najah National University)

  • Sadık Alashan

    (Bingöl University)

  • Eyüp Şişman

    (Yildiz Technical University
    Istanbul Medipol University)

Abstract

As a natural disaster, drought has inverse effects on the agricultural and environmental sectors. Comprehensive drought evaluation is critical for integrated water resources management and drought monitoring. Drought is generally evaluated temporally and spatially without considering its trend, but in recent years, the study of drought trends has become common. However, in drought trend analyses, it is necessary to identify the frequency change of drought classification, along with the sub-trends and their magnitudes, which have been identified in this research with the combined frequency analysis and innovative trend analysis methodologies (F-ITA). Three different drought indices, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and streamflow drought index (SDI), were calculated at different time scales at Florya Station, Istanbul, Türkiye, Durham Station in the United Kingdom, and Vargonas (Vargönäs) KRV Station in Sweden. The results showed that F-ITA improved the drought evaluation with a more detailed investigation of meteorological and hydrological drought trends on a microscale rather than stating a decrease or increase trend. There was no trend for SPI-3 and -6 F-ITA; for SPI-12 F-ITA, all drought classifications showed a monotonic increase trend. For example, for SPI-1 and SPEI-1 F-ITA, the abnormally dry classification showed minimal change with frequencies of 35%. The SPEI-12 F-ITA graph showed an increasing trend in all drought classifications. For SPEI-12, the frequency of exceptional drought (extremely dry) events increased from 0.11% (0.66%) to 1.21% (2.3%), while severe and moderate drought frequencies rose significantly from 3.73% to 4.61% and 7.46% to 11.4%, respectively. Finally, monotonic trend increases were noticed in the SDI at all time scales for all classifications. Graphical abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Abu Arra & Sadık Alashan & Eyüp Şişman, 2025. "Advancing innovative trend analysis for drought trends: incorporating drought classification frequencies for comprehensive insights," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(8), pages 9195-9219, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07119-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07119-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07119-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-025-07119-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zekai Şen & Eyüp Şişman & Ismail Dabanli, 2020. "Wet and dry spell feature charts for practical uses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 1975-1986, December.
    2. Abdelaaziz Merabti & Mohamed Meddi & Diogo S. Martins & Luis S. Pereira, 2018. "Comparing SPI and RDI Applied at Local Scale as Influenced by Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1071-1085, February.
    3. Sadık Alashan, 2018. "Data Analysis in Nonstationary State," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2277-2286, May.
    4. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    5. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    6. Djerbouai Salim & Souag-Gamane Doudja & Ferhati Ahmed & Djoukbala Omar & Dougha Mostafa & Benselama Oussama & Hasbaia Mahmoud, 2023. "Comparative Study of Different Discrete Wavelet Based Neural Network Models for long term Drought Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1401-1420, February.
    7. Ahmad Abu Arra & Eyüp Şişman, 2024. "Innovative Drought Classification Matrix and Acceptable Time Period for Temporal Drought Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(8), pages 2811-2833, June.
    8. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lampros Vasiliades & Athanasios Loukas & Nikos Liberis, 2011. "A Water Balance Derived Drought Index for Pinios River Basin, Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1087-1101, March.
    2. Ahmad Abu Arra & Eyüp Şişman, 2024. "Innovative Drought Classification Matrix and Acceptable Time Period for Temporal Drought Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(8), pages 2811-2833, June.
    3. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.
    4. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    5. Konstantinos Spiliotis & Konstantinos Voudouris & Harris Vangelis & Mike Spiliotis, 2025. "Analysis of Annual Drought Episodes Using Complex Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Jagadish Padhiary & Kanhu Charan Patra & Sonam Sandeep Dash, 2022. "A Novel Approach to Identify the Characteristics of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenario," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5163-5189, October.
    7. Peng Qi & Y. Jun Xu & Guodong Wang, 2020. "Quantifying the Individual Contributions of Climate Change, Dam Construction, and Land Use/Land Cover Change to Hydrological Drought in a Marshy River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, May.
    8. Enes Gul & Efthymia Staiou & Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari & Babak Vaheddoost, 2023. "Enhancing Meteorological Drought Modeling Accuracy Using Hybrid Boost Regression Models: A Case Study from the Aegean Region, Türkiye," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-17, July.
    9. Nadjib Haied & Atif Foufou & Samira Khadri & Adel Boussaid & Mohamed Azlaoui & Nabil Bougherira, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Three Different Climatic Zones in Algeria Using Two Commonly Used Meteorological Indices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-25, May.
    10. Jianzhu Li & Shuhan Zhou & Rong Hu, 2016. "Hydrological Drought Class Transition Using SPI and SRI Time Series by Loglinear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 669-684, January.
    11. Dilayda Soylu Pekpostalci & Rifat Tur & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Mohammad Amin Vazifekhah Ghaffari & Dominika Dąbrowska & Vahid Nourani, 2023. "Drought Monitoring and Forecasting across Turkey: A Contemporary Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Mohsin Butt & Ahmad Waqas & Rashed Mahmood, 2010. "The Combined Effect of Vegetation and Soil Erosion in the Water Resource Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3701-3714, October.
    13. Rajendra Pandey & Ashish Pandey & Ravi Galkate & Hi-Ryong Byun & Bimal Mal, 2010. "Integrating Hydro-Meteorological and Physiographic Factors for Assessment of Vulnerability to Drought," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4199-4217, December.
    14. Ionuţ Minea & Marina Iosub & Daniel Boicu, 2022. "Multi-scale approach for different type of drought in temperate climatic conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1153-1177, January.
    15. Alireza Shokoohi & Reza Morovati, 2015. "Basinwide Comparison of RDI and SPI Within an IWRM Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2011-2026, April.
    16. Ali Tabrizi & Davar Khalili & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa, 2010. "Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4287-4306, December.
    17. U. Surendran & B. Anagha & P. Raja & V. Kumar & K. Rajan & M. Jayakumar, 2019. "Analysis of Drought from Humid, Semi-Arid and Arid Regions of India Using DrinC Model with Different Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1521-1540, March.
    18. Dimitrios Myronidis & Dimitrios Stathis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis, 2012. "An Integration of Statistics Temporal Methods to Track the Effect of Drought in a Shallow Mediterranean Lake," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4587-4605, December.
    19. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    20. Bilel Zerouali & Mohamed Chettih & Zaki Abda & Mohamed Mesbah & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Reginaldo Moura Brasil Neto & Richarde Marques Silva, 2021. "Spatiotemporal meteorological drought assessment in a humid Mediterranean region: case study of the Oued Sebaou basin (northern central Algeria)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 689-709, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07119-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.