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A new framework for innovative trend analysis: integrating extreme precipitation indices, standardization, enhanced visualization, and novel classification approaches (ITA-NF)

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad Abu Arra

    (Yildiz Technical University
    An-Najah National University)

  • Sadık Alashan

    (Bingöl University)

  • Eyüp Şişman

    (Yildiz Technical University)

Abstract

With the increasing impacts of climate change, studies based on trend analysis have recently increased and are considered essential tools in different sectors, such as the agricultural sector. Compared to classical trend methods, the innovative trend analysis (ITA) methodology provides a robust visualization and interpretability. Despite its advantages, there is a need to introduce a novel framework of ITA (ITA-NF) to enhance its interpretability by incorporating the scatter plots, statistical classification approach based on the standardization concept and corresponding frequencies and expanding its application to extreme precipitation indices. This allows for an objective examination and interpretation of the effects of climate change. So, the main objective of this research is to propose the ITA-NF by Improving the original Şen's ITA methodology. Daily precipitation data from two stations with different periods and climates were used as applications in this research: the Durham station in the UK from 1868 to 2021 and the Burbank station in California, USA, from 1940 to 2023. The results showed that dividing the data into classifications with their corresponding frequencies improves our understanding of climate change and objective interpretation of how the sub-different trends and trend conditions are distributed within the dataset. For the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5d) at Burbank station, the first (second) half of the ML–SL total frequency was 40.47% (35.72%), and the NL-NH total frequency was 33.33% (42.86%). ITA-NF can be utilized in climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, and it can understand all trend in the data throughout time. Graphical abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Abu Arra & Sadık Alashan & Eyüp Şişman, 2025. "A new framework for innovative trend analysis: integrating extreme precipitation indices, standardization, enhanced visualization, and novel classification approaches (ITA-NF)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(11), pages 13543-13575, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07334-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07334-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zekâi Şen, 2024. "Moving Trend Analysis Methodology for Hydro-meteorology Time Series Dynamic Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(11), pages 4415-4429, September.
    2. Ahmad Abu Arra & Sadık Alashan & Eyüp Şişman, 2025. "Advancing innovative trend analysis for drought trends: incorporating drought classification frequencies for comprehensive insights," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(8), pages 9195-9219, May.
    3. Fabio Di Nunno & Marco De Matteo & Giovanni Izzo & Francesco Granata, 2023. "A Combined Clustering and Trends Analysis Approach for Characterizing Reference Evapotranspiration in Veneto," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Mohammed Achite & Tommaso Caloiero & Abderrezak Kamel Toubal, 2022. "Rainfall and Runoff Trend Analysis in the Wadi Mina Basin (Northern Algeria) Using Non-Parametric Tests and the ITA Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-23, August.
    5. Manes, Stella & Vale, Mariana M. & Malecha, Artur & Pires, Aliny P.F., 2022. "Nature-based solutions promote climate change adaptation safeguarding ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
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    1. Ahmad Abu Arra & Mehmet Emin Birpınar & Eyüp Şişman, 2025. "Evaluating ERA5-LAND and IMERG-NASA Products for Drought Analysis: Implications for Sustainable Water Resource Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-30, August.

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