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Methodology to Evaluate Aquifers Water Budget Alteration Due to Climate Change Impact on the Snow Fraction

Author

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  • José-Luis Molina

    (IGA Research Group, University of Salamanca)

  • Susana Lagüela

    (University of Salamanca)

  • Santiago Zazo

    (IGA Research Group, University of Salamanca)

Abstract

This paper aims to propose a methodology to evaluate and quantify perturbed groundwater budgets considering the projected reduction of Average Snow Fraction of Surface Runoff (ASFSR). Future groundwater budgets are generated considering different CC temporal Scenarios, RCMs, as well as the status of each Groundwater Body (GwB). The proposed methodology is applied to the Central Mountain Range of Iberian Peninsula (Avila Province). Existing studies show a drastic Reduction on Snow Melting (RSM) and on Cumulative Snow Volume (CSV). This leads to a huge reduction of Average Snow Fraction of Surface Runoff (ASFSR) and on groundwater availability calculated through the indicator Perturbed Exploitation Index (PEI). There are important differences depending on the RCM used, on the temporal CC Scenario and on the GwB considered. Main difficulties and challenges comprise the lack of field data and rigorous studies on modelling of groundwater hydrodynamic modelling. Despite of that, research results show a robust and generalized increase in all Exploitation Indexes (EI). EI increase is of 4.17 % for IP1 (Short Term) RCP 4.5, 14.94 % for IP2 (Medium Term) RCP 4.5, 17.65 % for IP3 (Long Term) RCP 4.5. On the other hand, there is an increase of 9.89 % for IP1 RCP 8.5, 19.05 % for IP2 RCP 8.5 and 35.14 % for IP3 RCP 8.5. Thus, there is a generalised and very important decrease of recharge (PARR) of 59.03 % for IP1 RCP 4.5, 88.97 % for IP2 RCP 4.5, 90.02 % for IP3. Likewise, for RCP 8.5, there is a decrease of 72.69 % for IP1 RCP 8.5, 88.97 % for IP2 RCP 8.5 and 97.90 % for IP3.

Suggested Citation

  • José-Luis Molina & Susana Lagüela & Santiago Zazo, 2021. "Methodology to Evaluate Aquifers Water Budget Alteration Due to Climate Change Impact on the Snow Fraction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2569-2583, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02851-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02851-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fairouz Slama & Emna Gargouri-Ellouze & Rachida Bouhlila, 2020. "Impact of rainfall structure and climate change on soil and groundwater salinization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 395-413, November.
    2. Jose-Luis Molina & Sergio Martos-Rosillo & Crisanto Martín-Montañés & Suzanne Pierce, 2012. "The Social Sustainable Aquifer Yield: An Indicator for the Analysis and Assessment of the Integrated Aquifers Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(10), pages 2951-2971, August.
    3. Negar Tayebzadeh Moghadam & Karim C. Abbaspour & Bahram Malekmohammadi & Mario Schirmer & Ahmad Reza Yavari, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Modelling of Water Balance Components in Response to Climate and Landuse Changes in a Heterogeneous Mountainous Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(3), pages 793-810, February.
    4. Lauffenburger, Zachary H. & Gurdak, Jason J. & Hobza, Chris & Woodward, Duane & Wolf, Cassandra, 2018. "Irrigated agriculture and future climate change effects on groundwater recharge, northern High Plains aquifer, USA," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 69-80.
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