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Assessment of Two Different Methods in Predicting Hydrological Drought from the Perspective of Water Demand

Author

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  • Giovana Cristina Santos Medeiros

    (Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (PPgES/UFRN))

  • Adelena Gonçalves Maia

    (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN))

  • Joana Darc Freire Medeiros

    (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN))

Abstract

The traditional methodologies to determine hydrologic drought use standardized drought indexes, which do not express a drought’s severity in terms of the volume deficit and do not consider water demand as a component of its calculation. To overcome these disadvantages, this work presents a method for the assessment of hydrological drought that determines the volume of water below its demand. A drought can be characterized by its duration, severity and magnitude, using the Threshold Level Method. Complementarily, the method for the assessment of hydrological drought developed by Araújo and Bronstert (2016) was used to compare the characteristics of drought events in the same reservoirs. For this purpose, the droughts that occurred between 1997 and 2015 were studied in two reservoirs in the Piranhas-Açu River basin (Brazil). For both methodologies, the results showed that the reservoir with a higher storage capacity is more efficient and, thus, less susceptible to drought than the smaller. It was found that the basic difference between the two approaches is the time analysis of drought events: while the Threshold Level Method makes it possible to study what occurred in the past to diagnose and plan the use of water in the future, the other method enables the assessment of current conditions to anticipate the start of a hydrologic drought. It is suggested that the two methodologies presented can be used simultaneously by water resource managers to enable a more comprehensive analysis of drought events in the basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovana Cristina Santos Medeiros & Adelena Gonçalves Maia & Joana Darc Freire Medeiros, 2019. "Assessment of Two Different Methods in Predicting Hydrological Drought from the Perspective of Water Demand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1851-1865, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02218-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02218-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. José Carlos de Araújo & Axel Bronstert, 2016. "A method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments and its application to the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 213-230, March.
    2. Yongqin Chen & Qiang Zhang & Mingzhong Xiao & Vijay Singh, 2013. "Evaluation of risk of hydrological droughts by the trivariate Plackett copula in the East River basin (China)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 529-547, September.
    3. R. Pandey & S. Mishra & Ranvir Singh & K. Ramasastri, 2008. "Streamflow Drought Severity Analysis of Betwa River System (India)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(8), pages 1127-1141, August.
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    Cited by:

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