IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v25y2011i1p1-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Proportional Hazards Modeling of Water Main Failure Data Incorporating the Time-dependent Effects of Covariates

Author

Listed:
  • Suwan Park
  • Hwandon Jun
  • Newland Agbenowosi
  • Bong Kim
  • Kiyoung Lim

Abstract

Proportional hazards models (PHMs) for the times between consecutive pipe breaks were constructed using case study water main break data. The 150 mm individual cast iron pipes in the case study water distribution system were categorized into seven groups according to the past break history to construct a distinct PHM for each group. During the modeling process the assumption of the proportional hazards of covariates was examined to include the time-dependent effects of covariates on the failure hazard in the models. By analyzing the baseline hazard rates, the hazards of the third through the seventh break were found to follow a form similar to a bath-tub. The estimated regression coefficients and the hazard ratios of the selected covariates were used to analyze the variations in the factors and their effects, including the time-dependent effects on the pipe failures. The changes in the relative hazards of the covariates were also analyzed according to the number of breaks. The constructed PHMs were verified by analyzing the deviance residuals of each model. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Suwan Park & Hwandon Jun & Newland Agbenowosi & Bong Kim & Kiyoung Lim, 2011. "The Proportional Hazards Modeling of Water Main Failure Data Incorporating the Time-dependent Effects of Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9684-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-010-9684-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-010-9684-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Park & H. Jun & B. Kim & G. Im, 2008. "Modeling of Water Main Failure Rates Using the Log-linear ROCOF and the Power Law Process," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1311-1324, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Tabesh & H. Saber, 2012. "A Prioritization Model for Rehabilitation of Water Distribution Networks Using GIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 225-241, January.
    2. Kabir, Golam & Tesfamariam, Solomon & Sadiq, Rehan, 2015. "Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 498-514.
    3. Suwan Park, 2011. "Estimating the Timing of the Economical Replacement of Water Mains Based on the Predicted Pipe Break Times Using the Proportional Hazards Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2509-2524, August.
    4. Marwa Belhaj Salem & Mitra Fouladirad & Estelle Deloux, 2021. "Prognostic and Classification of Dynamic Degradation in a Mechanical System Using Variance Gamma Process," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-25, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qiang Xu & Qiuwen Chen & Jinfeng Ma & Koen Blanckaert & Zhonghua Wan, 2014. "Water Saving and Energy Reduction through Pressure Management in Urban Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3715-3726, September.
    2. Stavroula Tsitsifli & Vasilis Kanakoudis & Ioannis Bakouros, 2011. "Pipe Networks Risk Assessment Based on Survival Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3729-3746, November.
    3. Kabir, Golam & Tesfamariam, Solomon & Sadiq, Rehan, 2015. "Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 498-514.
    4. Chih-Liang Kuo & Nien-Sheng Hsu, 2011. "An Optimization Model for Crucial Key Pipes and Mechanical Reliability: A Case Study on a Water Distribution System in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 763-775, January.
    5. Andrés Carrión & Hernando Solano & María Gamiz & Ana Debón, 2010. "Evaluation of the Reliability of a Water Supply Network from Right-Censored and Left-Truncated Break Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(12), pages 2917-2935, September.
    6. Symeon Christodoulou & Alexandra Deligianni, 2010. "A Neurofuzzy Decision Framework for the Management of Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 139-156, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:1:p:1-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.