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A Statistical Analysis Between Consumer Behavior and a Social Network Service: A Case Study of Used-Car Demand Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011

Author

Listed:
  • Yuya Shibuya

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Hideyuki Tanaka

    (The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

When a large-scale disaster hits a community, especially a water-related disaster, there is a scarcity of automobiles and a sudden increase in the demand for used cars in the damaged areas. This paper conducts a case study of a recent massive natural disaster, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 to understand those car scarcities and demand in the aftermath of the catastrophe. We analyze the reasons for the increase in demand for used cars and how social media can predict people’s demand for used automobiles. In other words, this paper explores whether social media data can be used as a sensor of socio-economic recovery status in damaged areas during large-scale water-related disaster-recovery phases. For this purpose, we use social media communication as a proxy for estimating indicators of people’s activities in the real world. This study conducts both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. For the qualitative research, we carry out semi-structured interviews with used-car dealers in the tsunami-stricken area and unveil why people in the area demanded used cars. For the quantitative analysis, we collected Facebook page communication data and used-car market data before and after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. By combining and analyzing these two types of data, we find that social media communication correlates with people’s activities in the real world. Furthermore, this study suggests that different types of communication on social media have different types of correlations with people’s activities. More precisely, we find that social media communication related to people’s activities for rebuilding and for emotional support is positively correlated with the demand for used cars after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. On the other hand, communication about anxiety and information seeking correlates negatively with the demand for used cars.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuya Shibuya & Hideyuki Tanaka, 2018. "A Statistical Analysis Between Consumer Behavior and a Social Network Service: A Case Study of Used-Car Demand Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011," The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 205-236, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:trosos:v:12:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s12626-018-0025-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s12626-018-0025-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cheng, John W. & Mitomo, Hitoshi & Otsuka, Tokio & Jeon, Stefan Y., 2015. "The effects of ICT and mass media in post-disaster recovery – A two model case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 515-532.
    2. Xiangyang Guan & Cynthia Chen, 2014. "Using social media data to understand and assess disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 837-850, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Used-car market; Social media; Disaster logistics; Big data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment

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