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Problems of Forecasting the Sustainability of Russian Cities in Modern Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • A. A. Voloshinskaya

    (Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation)

  • A. N. Maksimov

    (Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation)

Abstract

— The paper analyzes the problems of predicting urban resistance to shocks. The methodological problems of forecasting are described: the vagueness and versatility of the concept of shock resistance, the unknown nature of the shock and the state of the system at the time of its onset, the complexity of cause-and-effect relationships in the system of urban economics and urban management, the unpredictability of the ability to adapt to shock, the human factor, the lack of consensus on the final goal urban shock resistance, lack and/or delay of data. In Russian conditions, these problems are compounded by the lack of up-to-date, high-quality information about the reaction to stress, about the most pressing problems that require immediate solutions. The author’s approach to predicting shock resistance was proposed and tested, including expert interviews with representatives of the city administration and their questionnaire survey. As the survey results showed, Russian cities have a fairly high adaptive capacity to stress, and one of the most important reasons for resilience is the human factor, the ability of the municipal administration to quickly respond to emerging problems.

Suggested Citation

  • A. A. Voloshinskaya & A. N. Maksimov, 2024. "Problems of Forecasting the Sustainability of Russian Cities in Modern Conditions," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 246-254, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700724020163
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724020163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ebrahim Farhadi & Ahmad Pourahmad & Keramatollah Ziari & Hassanali Faraji Sabokbar & Simona Tondelli, 2022. "Indicators Affecting the Urban Resilience with a Scenario Approach in Tehran Metropolis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, October.
    2. B. S. Zhikharevich & V. V. Klimanov & V. G. Maracha, 2021. "Resilience of a Territory: Concept, Measurement, Governance," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, January.
    3. B. N. Porfiryev & S. N. Bobylev, 2018. "Cities and Megalopolises: The Problem of Definitions and Sustainable Development Indicators," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 116-123, March.
    4. Adriana Sanchez & Jeroen Heijden & Paul Osmond, 2018. "The city politics of an urban age: urban resilience conceptualisations and policies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Xun Zeng & Yuanchun Yu & San Yang & Yang Lv & Md Nazirul Islam Sarker, 2022. "Urban Resilience for Urban Sustainability: Concepts, Dimensions, and Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-27, February.
    6. Edward J. Jepson & Anna L. Haines, 2014. "Zoning for Sustainability: A Review and Analysis of the Zoning Ordinances of 32 Cities in the United States," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 80(3), pages 239-252, July.
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