IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sorede/v33y2022i3d10.1134_s1075700722030157.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term Forecast of Agricultural Development in Russia Based on an Economic and Mathematical Model

Author

Listed:
  • I. G. Ushachev

    (All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE))

  • M. V. Kharina

    (All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE))

  • V. S. Chekalin

    (All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE))

Abstract

— This article presents a long-term forecast for the development of agriculture based on a linear optimization model. In ARRIAE, this model is applied to make long-term forecasts for the development of agriculture and individual agro-based industries. The proposed model (partial equilibrium) is used to optimize the distribution of tangible and cost resources in agriculture by the criterion of maximizing food consumption for the population of Russia. The guidelines for compiling a long-term forecast were macroeconomic parameters and directions of the long-term development in the national economy including the agro-industrial complex described in [1–6]. Model calculations were used in designing the Strategy for the Development of the Agro-Industrial and Fishery Complexes of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 [6] in terms of forecast volumes and indices of agricultural development for 2030. The forecast was made for two scenarios: target (optimistic) and “no-change” (pessimistic), depending on the emerging system of relations in the sector and in the Russian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • I. G. Ushachev & M. V. Kharina & V. S. Chekalin, 2022. "Long-term Forecast of Agricultural Development in Russia Based on an Economic and Mathematical Model," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 282-292, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:33:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1134_s1075700722030157
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700722030157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700722030157
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1134/S1075700722030157?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & D. A. Polzikov & Yu. S. Verbitskiy & Y. S. Melnikova, 2017. "On the assessment of the potential expansion of agricultural production and its structural shifts," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 624-636, November.
    2. A. P. Zinchenko, 2017. "Studying the problems of economic reproduction in agriculture of Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 140-146, March.
    3. N. M. Svetlov & S. O. Siptits & I. A. Romanenko & N. E. Evdokimova, 2019. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Location of Branches of Agriculture in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 406-418, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Светлов Н.М., 2019. "Непараметрическая Граница Производственных Возможностей В Вычислимой Модели Частичного Равновесия," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(4), pages 104-116, октябрь.
    2. N. M. Svetlov & S. O. Siptits & I. A. Romanenko & N. E. Evdokimova, 2019. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Location of Branches of Agriculture in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 406-418, July.
    3. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & D. A. Polzikov & Ya. S. Melnikova, 2019. "Main Aspects of Regional Food Security in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 393-399, July.
    4. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & D. A. Polzikov & Yu. S. Verbitskii & Ya. S. Melnikova, 2018. "Development of Dairy Farming in the Context of Food Security Policy in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 367-376, July.
    5. S. O. Siptits & I. A. Romanenko & N. E. Evdokimova, 2019. "Scenario Forecasts for the Impact of Integration Processes on Food Markets of the Eurasian Economic Union," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 102-110, January.
    6. Wiktor Halecki & Dawid Bedla, 2022. "Global Wheat Production and Threats to Supply Chains in a Volatile Climate Change and Energy Crisis," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-11, December.
    7. S. O. Siptits & I. A. Romanenko & N. E. Evdokimova, 2021. "Model Estimates of Climate Impact on Grain and Leguminous Crops Yield in the Regions of Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 169-176, March.
    8. V. D. Goncharov & V. V. Rau, 2018. "Export Potential of Russian Food Industry," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 544-550, September.
    9. Gorokhova, Tat’ayna & Pushkareva, Lyudmila & Pushkarev, Mikhail, 2020. "Modern problems of the product market of Russia," MPRA Paper 102113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Victor Denisov, 2018. "Untapped Opportunities for the State Support of Agricultural Labour in Russia," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 1003-1013.
    11. V. I. Denisov, 2019. "Acceleration of the Development of Agriculture in the Russian Economy by Increasing the Efficiency of the State Support of Rural Commodity Producers," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 66-73, January.
    12. A. P. Potapov, 2019. "Ensuring Resource Independence of Agrarian Production in the Context of Food Security of Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 563-569, September.
    13. D. A. Polzikov, 2022. "Imperatives of Adaptation to Climate Changes in the Development of Agricultural Policy in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 680-686, December.
    14. A. S. Rulev & A. M. Pugacheva, 2019. "Development of Plant Growing at the Regional Level (Based on the Example of Volgograd Oblast)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 557-562, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:33:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1134_s1075700722030157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.