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One-Way Sensitivity Analysis for Probabilistic Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Conditional Expected Incremental Net Benefit

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher McCabe

    (Institute of Health Economics
    University of Alberta)

  • Mike Paulden

    (University of Alberta)

  • Isaac Awotwe

    (University of Alberta)

  • Andrew Sutton

    (Institute of Health Economics)

  • Peter Hall

    (University of Edinburgh)

Abstract

Although probabilistic analysis has become the accepted standard for decision analytic cost-effectiveness models, deterministic one-way sensitivity analysis continues to be used to meet the need of decision makers to understand the impact that changing the value taken by one specific parameter has on the results of the analysis. The value of a probabilistic form of one-way sensitivity analysis has been recognised, but the proposed methods are computationally intensive. Deterministic one-way sensitivity analysis provides decision makers with biased and incomplete information whereas, in contrast, probabilistic one-way sensitivity analysis (POSA) can overcome these limitations, an observation supported in this study by results obtained when these methods were applied to a previously published cost-effectiveness analysis to produce a conditional incremental expected net benefit curve. The application of POSA will provide decision makers with unbiased information on how the expected net benefit is affected by a parameter taking on a specific value and the probability that the specific value will be observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher McCabe & Mike Paulden & Isaac Awotwe & Andrew Sutton & Peter Hall, 2020. "One-Way Sensitivity Analysis for Probabilistic Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Conditional Expected Incremental Net Benefit," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 135-141, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:pharme:v:38:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s40273-019-00869-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s40273-019-00869-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Walker & Mark Sculpher & Karl Claxton & Steve Palmer, 2012. "Coverage with evidence development, only in research, risk sharing or patient access scheme? A framework for coverage decisions," Working Papers 077cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    2. Drummond, Michael F. & Sculpher, Mark J. & Claxton, Karl & Stoddart, Greg L. & Torrance, George W., 2015. "Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 4, number 9780199665884.
    3. Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher & Chris McCabe & Andrew Briggs & Ron Akehurst & Martin Buxton & John Brazier & Tony O'Hagan, 2005. "Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 339-347, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher McCabe & Giovanni Tramonti & Andrew Sutton & Peter Hall & Mike Paulden, 2021. "Probabilistic One-Way Sensitivity Analysis with Multiple Comparators: The Conditional Net Benefit Frontier," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 19-24, January.

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