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Seasonal forecasting of 2014 summer heat wave over Beijing using GRAAP and other statistical methods

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  • Guodong Xu
  • Peng Guo
  • Xuemei Li
  • Yingying Jia

Abstract

Heat waves have taken place more and more frequently in Beijing due to the rapid urban expansion since the mid-1970s, which has been greatly affecting people’s life and social production. The aim of this paper was to provide a novel process which can be employed to accurately forecast the heat waves of Beijing in 2014, and the results can be used to guide us to take measures against the heat waves in advance. Based on the available samples from Beijing Statistical Yearbook and China Meteorological Yearbook, the more effective reference samples can be selected with the novel model called Grey Relational Analysis Based on the Angle Perspective and then the forecasting results can be obtained by these selected samples and some other statistical methods, the results may be more reliable than that directly obtained from all available samples. In addition, this process can also be applied to deal with some other forecasting issues. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Guodong Xu & Peng Guo & Xuemei Li & Yingying Jia, 2015. "Seasonal forecasting of 2014 summer heat wave over Beijing using GRAAP and other statistical methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1909-1925, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:2:p:1909-1925
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1404-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Michael Scheuerer & Luca Büermann, 2014. "Spatially adaptive post-processing of ensemble forecasts for temperature," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 405-422, April.
    4. Yan Zhou & J. Shepherd, 2010. "Atlanta’s urban heat island under extreme heat conditions and potential mitigation strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(3), pages 639-668, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dechao Chen & Xinliang Xu & Zongyao Sun & Luo Liu & Zhi Qiao & Tai Huang, 2019. "Assessment of Urban Heat Risk in Mountain Environments: A Case Study of Chongqing Metropolitan Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.

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