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Spatial and temporal analysis of drought risk during the crop-growing season over northeast China

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Listed:
  • Xingyang Yu
  • Xingyuan He
  • Haifeng Zheng
  • Ruichao Guo
  • Zhibin Ren
  • Dan Zhang
  • Jixiang Lin

Abstract

Northeast China as an important agricultural zone for commercial and economic crop in China suffered from increased drought risk that seriously threatened agricultural production and food security in recent decades. Based on precipitation datasets from 71 stations from 1960 to 2009 and on the reliable statistical methods of the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope and the Standardized Precipitation Index, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of drought occurrence during the crop-growing season (from May to September) and summer (from June to August). The results showed that regional mean precipitation during the crop-growing season and summer over the last 40 years has decreased at the rate of −1.72 and −1.12 mm/year, respectively. According to timescale analysis of abrupt changes, there were two distinct time series (1965–1983 and 1996–2009) with decreasing precipitation trends at a 95 % confidence level. A comparison between the two time series of these two periods demonstrated that more frequent and more severe drought occurred during 1996–2009. Furthermore, drought risk in recent decades has become even more serious both in severity and in extent. Especially in the crop-growing season of 2001 and summer of 2007, over 25 % (2.0 × 10 5 km 2 ) of study area experienced severe drought (serious and extreme droughts). Our results highlight the urgent need for the development of effective drought adaptations for cropland over northeast China. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Xingyang Yu & Xingyuan He & Haifeng Zheng & Ruichao Guo & Zhibin Ren & Dan Zhang & Jixiang Lin, 2014. "Spatial and temporal analysis of drought risk during the crop-growing season over northeast China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 275-289, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:1:p:275-289
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0909-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiaojing Liu & Jiquan Zhang & Donglai Ma & Yulong Bao & Zhijun Tong & Xingpeng Liu, 2013. "Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster for maize based on integrating multi-sources data in the region of the northwest of Liaoning Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1393-1409, February.
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    1. Piyush Dahal & Nicky Shree Shrestha & Madan Lall Shrestha & Nir Y. Krakauer & Jeeban Panthi & Soni M. Pradhanang & Ajay Jha & Tarendra Lakhankar, 2016. "Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1913-1932, February.
    2. Zhang, Zhe & Zhang, Yanqing & Sun, Zhanxiang & Zheng, Jiaming & Liu, Enke & Feng, Liangshan & Feng, Chen & Si, Pengfei & Bai, Wei & Cai, Qian & Yang, Ning & van der Werf, Wopke & Zhang, Lizhen, 2019. "Plastic film cover during the fallow season preceding sowing increases yield and water use efficiency of rain-fed spring maize in a semi-arid climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 203-210.
    3. Mohmmed, Alnail & Li, Jianhua & Elaru, Joshua & Elbashier, Mohammed M.A. & Keesstra, Saskia & Artemi, Cerdà & Martin, Kabenge & Reuben, Makomere & Teffera, Zeben, 2018. "Assessing drought vulnerability and adaptation among farmers in Gadaref region, Eastern Sudan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 402-413.
    4. Piyush Dahal & Nicky Shrestha & Madan Shrestha & Nir Krakauer & Jeeban Panthi & Soni Pradhanang & Ajay Jha & Tarendra Lakhankar, 2016. "Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1913-1932, February.
    5. Chaowei Xu & Hao Fu & Jiashuai Yang & Lingyue Wang & Yizhen Wang, 2022. "Land-Use-Based Runoff Yield Method to Modify Hydrological Model for Flood Management: A Case in the Basin of Simple Underlying Surface," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    6. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Fanghua, 2022. "Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    7. Wang, Jialin & Pan, Zhihua & Pan, Feifei & He, Di & Pan, Yuying & Han, Guolin & Huang, Na & Zhang, Ziyuan & Yin, Wenjuan & Zhang, Jiale & Peng, Ruiqi & Wang, Zizhong, 2020. "The regional water-conserving and yield-increasing characteristics and suitability of soil tillage practices in Northern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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