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Annual risk assessment on high-frequency debris-flow fans

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  • Kaiheng Hu
  • Yong Li
  • Fangqiang Wei

Abstract

An empirical model of debris-flow risk assessment is developed to estimate annual loss ratio on high-frequency debris-flow fans where more than one hazard events occur every year. Based on observations of debris flows in Jiangjia Ravine, Yunnan Province, China, it is found that Gamma distribution is more appropriate for describing the annual frequency than the exponential distribution, which is supposed to be a good description of the low-frequency cases. Further analyses reveal that the two parameters of Gamma distribution can be explained, respectively, as the number of factors which dominate debris-flow occurrence and one-third of the mean annual frequency. Given the expectation of loss ratio is unchanged for each event we deduced a simple relationship between the expectations of one-event and annual loss ratios. Combined with the Gamma model, an equation is proposed to calculate the expectation of the annual loss ratio, which can be also used to assess the potential risk of fans formed by high-frequency debris flows. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiheng Hu & Yong Li & Fangqiang Wei, 2009. "Annual risk assessment on high-frequency debris-flow fans," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(3), pages 469-477, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:49:y:2009:i:3:p:469-477
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-008-9290-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gwo-Fong Lin & Lu-Hsien Chen & Jun-Nan Lai, 2006. "Assessment of Risk due to Debris Flow Events: A Case Study in Central Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 39(1), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Dieter Rickenmann, 1999. "Empirical Relationships for Debris Flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 19(1), pages 47-77, January.
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