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Social vulnerability to long-duration power outages in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Jesse Dugan

    (Colorado School of Mines)

  • Edson Gonçalves

    (Center for Studies in Regulation and Infrastructure)

  • Luciana Costa

    (Center for Studies in Regulation and Infrastructure)

  • Joisa Dutra

    (Center for Studies in Regulation and Infrastructure)

  • Rafael Souza

    (Center for Studies in Regulation and Infrastructure)

  • Salman Mohagheghi

    (Colorado School of Mines)

Abstract

Natural disasters and extreme weather events have caused long-duration power outages in Brazil in recent years, partly due to the lack of resilience of the power grid. These outages can have disastrous impacts on the lives and livelihoods of the people who lose access to electricity. These impacts are most severe for socially vulnerable populations who struggle to prepare for or recover from a power outage. However, no index of social vulnerability specific to power outages in Brazil currently exists. To fill this gap, this paper develops an index of social vulnerability to long-duration power outages tailored to Brazil. Results are demonstrated on a case study of Rio de Janeiro using publicly available data to create indices of vulnerability in three dimensions of health, preparedness, and evacuation, as well as an index of overall vulnerability. The vulnerability maps are reported at the municipality, weighting area, and/or census tract levels. The results indicate that the most socially vulnerable regions are also highly susceptible to extreme weather events and natural disasters. The vulnerability maps can be used for targeted decision making in terms of infrastructural hardening, grid reinforcement, and preemptive event preparation as well as to inform risk-based resilient operation strategies. This study also discusses policy barriers and opportunities for vulnerability-informed resilience approaches in Brazil. Overall, this index is a valuable tool for policymakers and electric utilities to understand who is vulnerable during a power outage and to build a more equitable and resilient power grid.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesse Dugan & Edson Gonçalves & Luciana Costa & Joisa Dutra & Rafael Souza & Salman Mohagheghi, 2025. "Social vulnerability to long-duration power outages in Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(3), pages 3123-3149, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06920-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06920-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. J. Roncancio & A. C. Nardocci, 2016. "Social vulnerability to natural hazards in São Paulo, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 1367-1383, November.
    2. Botelho, Vinícius, 2019. "Estimating the economic impacts of power supply interruptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 983-994.
    3. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
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