IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i2d10.1007_s11069-024-06896-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis and simulation of three tropical cyclones with different paths in the Arabian Sea

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Karami

    (Research Institute of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences)

  • Zahra Ghassabi

    (Research Institute of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences)

  • Sakineh Khansalari

    (Research Institute of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences)

Abstract

The Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea (AS) are regularly influenced by tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, the TCs in the AS during the period 1980–2022 were examined, and their correlation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was identified. Three TCs Biparjoy, Shaheen, and Mekunu, that developed in the AS andF followed various paths were simulated using the WRF model. Climatic analysis indicated that most TCs occurred in the Indian Ocean during the negative or neutral phase of ENSO, as well as neutral phase of the IOD. These storms typically formed in the pre-monsoon season in the eastern AS, moving predominantly northward and northeastward. However, during the post-monsoon season, they often developed in more southern regions of the sea and shifted westward. Satellite product analysis of these three TCs revealed the presence of ice-phase cirrus clouds with significant thickness at higher altitudes near the storm’s eye. The simulation showed an intense low-pressure at the storm’s location and TCs moved towards areas with lower pressure and less wind shear. In well-developed TCs, a significant relative humidity reduction in the eye region and moisture gradient between rain bands and subsiding cold air areas were observed. During the peak days of cyclonic activity, the helicity reached its maximum. The vertical structure of potential vorticity displayed tropopause folding in the upper and middle levels of troposphere. The WRF model underestimated the speed of TC movement and the intensity and extent of precipitation during Shaheen TC. In the case of Biparjoy, the model indicated precipitation over a broader area around the storm center. The simulation of the Mekunu tropical storm suggested lesser precipitation in regions surrounding the storm center. The quantitative comparison of daily cumulative precipitation between the GPM satellite product and the WRF output across all grid points revealed the highest correlation and the lowest RMSE for Biparjoy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Karami & Zahra Ghassabi & Sakineh Khansalari, 2025. "Analysis and simulation of three tropical cyclones with different paths in the Arabian Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1997-2022, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06896-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06896-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06896-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06896-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amato T. Evan & James P. Kossin & Chul ‘Eddy’ Chung & V. Ramanathan, 2011. "Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols," Nature, Nature, vol. 479(7371), pages 94-97, November.
    2. Biranchi Mahala & Birendra Nayak & Pratap Mohanty, 2015. "Impacts of ENSO and IOD on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1105-1125, January.
    3. Elizabeth Tennant & Elisabeth A. Gilmore, 2020. "Government effectiveness and institutions as determinants of tropical cyclone mortality," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(46), pages 28692-28699, November.
    4. Mohsen Soltanpour & Zahra Ranji & Tomoya Shibayama & Sarmad Ghader, 2021. "Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea: overview and simulation of winds and storm-induced waves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 711-732, August.
    5. Munehiko Yamaguchi & Johnny C. L. Chan & Il-Ju Moon & Kohei Yoshida & Ryo Mizuta, 2020. "Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, December.
    6. Yui-Yip Lau & Tsz-Leung Yip & Maxim A. Dulebenets & Yuk-Ming Tang & Tomoya Kawasaki, 2022. "A Review of Historical Changes of Tropical and Extra-Tropical Cyclones: A Comparative Analysis of the United States, Europe, and Asia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-19, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jansesberger, Viktoria, 2024. "Storms, floods, landslides and elections in India's growing metropolises: Hotbeds for political protest?," Working Papers 28, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    2. Meiqi Zhu & Ying Li & Xueling Zhang & Jin Sun & Chenchen Jia, 2024. "Spatiotemporal evolution of tropical cyclone precipitation in China from 1971 to 2020," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(6), pages 5617-5638, April.
    3. Qiong Chen & Hongyu Zhang & Yui-Yip Lau & Tianni Wang & Wen Wang & Guangsheng Zhang, 2023. "Climate Change, Carbon Peaks, and Carbon Neutralization: A Bibliometric Study from 2006 to 2023," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-12, March.
    4. R. S. Akhila & J. Kuttippurath & R. Rahul & A. Chakraborty, 2022. "Genesis and simultaneous occurrences of the super cyclone Kyarr and extremely severe cyclone Maha in the Arabian Sea in October 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1133-1150, September.
    5. Prasad G. Thoppil, 2025. "Sustained freshening of Arabian Sea High Salinity Water induced by extreme precipitation events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Zhiyi Lin & Minerva Singh, 2024. "Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Natural Habitats in Enhancing Coastal Resilience: A Case Study in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-23, January.
    7. Laureti, Lucio & Costantiello, Alberto & Leogrande, Angelo, 2023. "The Role of Government Effectiveness in the Light of ESG Data at Global Level," MPRA Paper 115998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Asrini Chrysanti & Ariz Adhani & Ismail Naufal Azkiarizqi & Mohammad Bagus Adityawan & Muhammad Syahril Badri Kusuma & Muhammad Cahyono, 2024. "Assessing Compound Coastal–Fluvial Flood Impacts and Resilience Under Extreme Scenarios in Demak, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-22, November.
    9. Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "State capacity and vulnerability to natural disasters," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 20, pages 434-457, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Renato Molina & Ivan Rudik, 2022. "The Social Value of Predicting Hurricanes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10049, CESifo.
    11. Apurba Roy & Ilan Noy, 2023. "Impact of extratropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires on firms’ financial performance in New Zealand," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(4), pages 493-574, October.
    12. Akshansha Chauhan & Rajesh Kumar & Ramesh P. Singh, 2018. "Coupling between Land–Ocean–Atmosphere and Pronounced Changes in Atmospheric/Meteorological Parameters Associated with the Hudhud Cyclone of October 2014," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Brannlund, Johan & Dunbar, Geoffrey & Ellwanger, Reinhard & Krutkiewicz, Matthew, 2023. "Weather the storms? Resilience investment and production losses after hurricanes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Asif Iqbal & Syed Ahmad Hassan, 2018. "ENSO and IOD analysis on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 879-890, April.
    15. Md Wahiduzzaman & Jing-Jia Luo, 2022. "Modeling of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using generalised additive model and machine learning techniques: role of Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1801-1811, March.
    16. Jaap W.B. Bos & Jasmin Gröschl & Martien Lamers & Runliang Li & Mark Sanders & Vincent Schippers & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2022. "How Do Institutions Affect the Impact of Natural Disasters?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10174, CESifo.
    17. S. Niggol Seo & Laura A. Bakkensen, 2016. "Did adaptation strategies work? High fatalities from tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and future vulnerability under global warming," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1341-1355, June.
    18. Tianni Wang & Haochen Feng & Mark Ching-Pong Poo & Yui-Yip Lau, 2024. "Analysis of the Network Efficiency of Chinese Ports in Global Shipping under the Impacts of Typhoons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-17, April.
    19. Pratap Kumar Mohanty & Prabin Kumar Kar & Balaji Behera, 2020. "Impact of very severe cyclonic storm Phailin on shoreline change along South Odisha Coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(2), pages 633-644, June.
    20. Rituparna Kaushik & Yashobanta Parida & Ravikiran Naik, 2024. "Human development and disaster mortality: evidence from India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06896-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.