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Seismic prediction in the mediterranean: AI-driven forecasting models

Author

Listed:
  • Imen Ziadi

    (University of Tunis El Manar
    University of Carthage
    Higher Institute of Information and Communication Technologies)

  • Nejla Essaddi

    (University of Carthage
    University of Carthage
    Higher Institute of Information and Communication Technologies)

  • Mongi Besbes

    (University of Tunis El Manar
    University of Carthage
    Higher Institute of Information and Communication Technologies)

Abstract

Earthquake prediction is vital for mitigating seismic risks, especially in regions like the Mediterranean, prone to frequent seismic activity. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques: linear regression, long short-term memory, bidirectional long short-term memory, convolutional neural network, time series analysis, and the informer model, using historical seismic data to predict earthquake occurrences. The models demonstrated notable predictive capabilities, revealing trends and patterns in earthquake activity across the region. The analysis highlights the importance of high-quality, diverse datasets and robust validation methods to improve prediction accuracy. Despite challenges, such as data imbalances and model limitations, the findings provide valuable insights for refining earthquake forecasting models and enhancing regional seismic risk management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Imen Ziadi & Nejla Essaddi & Mongi Besbes, 2025. "Seismic prediction in the mediterranean: AI-driven forecasting models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(10), pages 12123-12167, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:10:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07275-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07275-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julia Buszta & Katarzyna Wójcik & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Krystian Kozioł & Kamil Maciuk, 2023. "Historical Analysis and Prediction of the Magnitude and Scale of Natural Disasters Globally," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Xinhe Liu & Wenmin Wang, 2024. "Deep Time Series Forecasting Models: A Comprehensive Survey," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-33, May.
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