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Linking the future likelihood of large fires to occur on mountain slopes with fuel connectivity and topography

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Conedera

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

  • Jeremy Feusi

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

  • Gianni Boris Pezzatti

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

  • Patrik Krebs

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

Abstract

In the long run, ongoing climate change is expected to alter fuel production as well as the frequency and severity of fire weather, which may result in an unprecedented frequency of extreme fire events. In this paper we propose a simplified and spatially explicit method to assess the probability of experiencing large fires, based on topography (slope length) as well as extent and aggregation of the forested area (fuel connectivity). We considered 21 homogeneous pyroregions covering entire Switzerland as a study case and computed the length of the upslope paths within the forested areas, simulating ignition points on a systematic 100 × 100 m square grid. We then compared the obtained path lengths for each pyroregion with selected historical large forest fire statistics (e.g., mean area of the largest 5% of fires, maximum burnt area per fire) collected over the course of the last 30 years. This resulted in rather high R2 values, ranging from 0.558 to 0.651. The proposed approach was shown to allow for an easy identification and geo-localization of potential hotspots in terms of the likelihood for large fires to occur in mountainous regions, which is a prerequisite for a targeted planning of fire management measures aimed at preventing large fires and related post-fire gravitative natural hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Conedera & Jeremy Feusi & Gianni Boris Pezzatti & Patrik Krebs, 2024. "Linking the future likelihood of large fires to occur on mountain slopes with fuel connectivity and topography," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(5), pages 4657-4673, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06395-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06395-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pezzatti, Gianni B. & Zumbrunnen, Thomas & Bürgi, Matthias & Ambrosetti, Paolo & Conedera, Marco, 2013. "Fire regime shifts as a consequence of fire policy and socio-economic development: An analysis based on the change point approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 7-18.
    2. Douglas I. Kelley & Ioannis Bistinas & Rhys Whitley & Chantelle Burton & Toby R. Marthews & Ning Dong, 2019. "How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(9), pages 690-696, September.
    3. Abbas Mofidi & Iman Soltanzadeh & Yadollah Yousefi & Azar Zarrin & Mohsen Soltani & Jafar Masoompour Samakosh & Ghasem Azizi & Samuel Miller, 2015. "Modeling the exceptional south Foehn event (Garmij) over the Alborz Mountains during the extreme forest fire of December 2005," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2489-2518, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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