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Pedestrian evacuation time calculation against tsunami hazard for southern coasts of Bodrum peninsula

Author

Listed:
  • Busra Celikbas

    (METU)

  • Duygu Tufekci-Enginar

    (METU)

  • Gozde Guney Dogan

    (METU)

  • Cagil Kolat

    (METU)

  • Marzia Santini

    (European Commission Joint Research Center)

  • Alessandro Annunziato

    (European Commission Joint Research Center)

  • Ocal Necmioglu

    (European Commission Joint Research Center
    Bogazici University)

  • Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner

    (METU)

  • Mehmet Lutfi Suzen

    (METU)

Abstract

Historical records with recent events reveal that tsunamis are threatening the western coast of Turkey due to the intensely active seismicity of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The most recent tsunami events in the region (30 October 2020 Izmir-Samos and 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos) restated that the cities located near the Eastern Mediterranean and connected seas should also consider tsunami events in their disaster mitigation plans. Bodrum is one of the most critical coastal districts vulnerable to marine hazards, with popular hotels, numerous coastal facilities, long and famous beaches, cultural, historical and touristic places. Tsunami evacuation planning is required for Bodrum district to mitigate the damage caused by destructive tsunami waves inundating on land. This study calculates the geospatial distribution of pedestrian evacuation time, based on selected credible worst-case scenarios. A widely used anisotropic least-cost distance model is applied via the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool to calculate the required time for a pedestrian to evacuate the region under tsunami threat based on the selected scenarios. The model includes landscape properties that affect the walking pace of pedestrians during an evacuation, such as elevation, slope, land cover, and land use types (beach, road, bushes, water bodies, and barriers). The resultant pedestrian evacuation time maps show that the maximum time needed for a pedestrian is 8, 6, 5, 4, and 3 min for highly populated coastal settlements of Bodrum, which are Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet Bays, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Busra Celikbas & Duygu Tufekci-Enginar & Gozde Guney Dogan & Cagil Kolat & Marzia Santini & Alessandro Annunziato & Ocal Necmioglu & Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner & Mehmet Lutfi Suzen, 2023. "Pedestrian evacuation time calculation against tsunami hazard for southern coasts of Bodrum peninsula," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 243-260, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:119:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06034-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06034-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathan Wood & Jeff Peters, 2015. "Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1811-1831, January.
    2. Anna Fokaefs & Gerassimos Papadopoulos, 2007. "Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(3), pages 503-526, March.
    3. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2012. "Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 275-300, June.
    4. Zhenqiang Wang & Gaofeng Jia, 2021. "A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 2045-2071, January.
    5. Duygu Tufekci-Enginar & M. Lutfi Suzen & Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner, 2021. "The evaluation of public awareness and community preparedness parameter in GIS-based spatial tsunami human vulnerability assessment (MeTHuVA)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2639-2658, February.
    6. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2013. "Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1603-1628, February.
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