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Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA

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  • George Priest
  • Laura Stimely
  • Nathan Wood
  • Ian Madin
  • Rudie Watzig

Abstract

Previous pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunamis has not considered variable wave arrival times or critical junctures (e.g., bridges), and did not effectively communicate multiple evacuee travel speeds. We summarize an approach that identifies evacuation corridors, recognizes variable wave arrival times, and produces a map of minimum pedestrian travel speeds to reach safety, termed a “beat-the-wave” (BTW) evacuation analysis. We demonstrate the improved approach by evaluating difficulty of pedestrian evacuation of Seaside, Oregon, for a local tsunami generated by a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. We establish evacuation paths by calculating the least-cost distance (LCD) to safety for every grid cell in a tsunami hazard zone using geospatial, anisotropic path distance algorithms. Minimum BTW speed to safety on LCD paths is calculated for every grid cell by dividing surface distance from that cell to safety by the tsunami arrival time at safety. We evaluated three scenarios of evacuation difficulty: (1) all bridges are intact with a 5-min evacuation delay from the start of earthquake, (2) only retrofitted bridges are considered intact with a 5-min delay, and (3) only retrofitted bridges are considered intact with a 10-min delay. BTW maps also take into account critical evacuation points along complex shorelines (e.g., peninsulas, bridges over shore-parallel estuaries) where evacuees could be caught by tsunami waves. The BTW map is able to communicate multiple pedestrian travel speeds, which are typically visualized by multiple maps with current LCD-based mapping practices. Results demonstrate that evacuation of Seaside is problematic seaward of the shore-parallel waterways for those with any limitations on mobility. Tsunami vertical evacuation refuges or additional pedestrian bridges may be effective ways of reducing loss of life seaward of these waterways. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA) 2016

Suggested Citation

  • George Priest & Laura Stimely & Nathan Wood & Ian Madin & Rudie Watzig, 2016. "Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1031-1056, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:2:p:1031-1056
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2011-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2013. "Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1603-1628, February.
    2. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
    3. Langlois, J.A. & Keyl, P.M. & Guralnik, J.M. & Foley, D.J. & Marottoli, R.A. & Wallace, R.B., 1997. "Characteristics of older pedestrians who have difficulty crossing the street," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(3), pages 393-397.
    4. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2012. "Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 275-300, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alireza Mostafizi & Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox & Lori A. Cramer & Shangjia Dong, 2017. "Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1347-1372, September.
    2. Chen Chen & Alireza Mostafizi & Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox & Lori Cramer, 2022. "Evacuation behaviors in tsunami drills," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 845-871, May.
    3. Zhenqiang Wang & Gaofeng Jia, 2021. "A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 2045-2071, January.
    4. Dylan Sanderson & Sabarethinam Kameshwar & Nathanael Rosenheim & Daniel Cox, 2021. "Deaggregation of multi-hazard damages, losses, risks, and connectivity: an application to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1821-1847, November.
    5. Jeff Peters & Nathan Wood & Rick Wilson & Kevin Miller, 2016. "Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 975-995, November.

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