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A comparative analysis of attabad landslide on january 4, 2010, using two numerical models

Author

Listed:
  • Hasnain Gardezi

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Muhammad Bilal

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Qiangong Cheng

    (Southwest Jiaotong University)

  • Aiguo Xing

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Yu Zhuang

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Tahir Masood

    (Wah Engineering College, University of Wah)

Abstract

This study determines the runout behavior (Attabad landslide, Hunza, Pakistan) of one of the biggest landslides in Pakistan's history, along the highest and strategically most important highway of the world. On January 4, 2010, at 08:36 local time, 45 Mm3 of rock mass flowed down the hill slope for 1060 m and fell in Hunza River, thus blocking the river's flow and making an artificial dam. This paper examines the landslide's failure process based on seismic data obtained from a published paper. The average velocity of the slide was found to be 14.32 m/s. To better understand the landslide dynamics and failure phenomena, a numerical simulation was conducted using DAN3D to simulate displaced materials' runout behavior. Simulation results indicate that the slope's failure lasted for 70 s, which is in good agreement with seismic wave recordings of 70 s. The combined frictional–Voellmy model obtained the most accurate results for simulation. Further, to verify the results, another simulation was run using RAMMS debris flow software; it was found that the results of both the software's are in good agreement. It is expected that the selected model and its parameters will help understand similar kind of rock avalanches in the area, which will help concerned agencies improve landslide prediction along Karakoram Highway.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasnain Gardezi & Muhammad Bilal & Qiangong Cheng & Aiguo Xing & Yu Zhuang & Tahir Masood, 2021. "A comparative analysis of attabad landslide on january 4, 2010, using two numerical models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 519-538, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:107:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04593-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04593-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohsin Butt & Muhammad Umar & Raheel Qamar, 2013. "Landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood estimation using HEC-RAS model in Northern Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 241-254, January.
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