Understanding the demographic changes in Kerala: an exploration

This study examines the current trajectory of demographic transition in Kerala in the light of existing trends experienced worldwide with regard to advanced mortality and fertility transitions. The findings suggest that Kerala is yet to confirm the onset of advanced stages of transitions in line with the global experiences. In mortality, there still remains untapped potential in the state to postpone the age-specific mortality rates from degenerative diseases from the age group of 70 + further to 80 + . The study recommends, instead of considering the ‘elderly’ as a group, targeted interventions are required to address the intra-group differentials in an age-sex disaggregated manner across major killer diseases in the advanced age groups. Similarly, the total fertility rate in Kerala is hovering around 1.7 to 1.9 children per woman for over three decades showing limited signs of rapid decline further. A strong sense of ‘familism’ in the state may have postponed the onset or full experience of the advanced fertility transition and the associated societal changes, known as second demographic transition. Following these changes in fertility and mortality, a drastic decline in the share of the young workforce (aged 20–34 years) between 1991 and 2011 within the working age population has been observed and the trend may continue in the coming years as well. Void in young workers has facilitated migration of young labourers from other states. The future pace of transition, therefore, will be determined by how fast the in-migrants are integrated with the current level of human development of the state.