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Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

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  • Alvaro Sandroni

Abstract

A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes’ rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Sandroni, 2005. "Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(4), pages 741-764, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:26:y:2005:i:4:p:741-764
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-004-0567-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    2. Christopher Chambers & Paul Healy, 2012. "Updating toward the signal," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(3), pages 765-786, August.
    3. Larry G. Epstein & Jawwad Noor & Alvaro Sandroni, 2008. "Supplementary Appendix for ‘Non-Bayesian Updating: A Theoretical Framework’," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2019. "Momentum and reversal in financial markets with persistent heterogeneity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 455-487, December.
    5. Cheng, Teng Yuan & Lee, Chun I. & Lin, Chao Hsien, 2020. "The effect of risk-taking behavior on profitability: Evidence from futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 19-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayes’ Rule; Wealth accumulation.;

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