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Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Samoa over 1978–2013

Author

Listed:
  • Sophia Lin

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Take Naseri

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Christine Linhart

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Stephen Morrell

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Richard Taylor

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Stephen T. Mcgarvey

    (Brown University)

  • Dianna J. Magliano

    (Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute)

  • Paul Zimmet

    (Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute)

Abstract

Objectives This study estimates type 2 diabetes (T2DM) incidence in Samoans aged 25–64 years from sequential, irregularly spaced, cross-sectional population prevalence surveys. Methods T2DM prevalence from eight population surveys conducted over 1978–2013 (n = 12,516) was adjusted for census region, sex, and 5-year age group to the nearest previous census. Annual T2DM incidence was calculated from adjusted prevalences (by sex), using birth cohorts constructed from age-period matrices. Projections of T2DM incidence to 2020 were estimated, based on various scenarios of population weight change using Poisson regression. Results Over 1978–2013, T2DM incidence was estimated to increase from 1.12 to 8.44 per 1000 person-years in men and from 2.55 to 8.04 per 1000 in women. Based on regression modeling, if mean population weight was stabilized from 2013, absolute incidence reductions of 0.9 per 1000 person-years (7% lower) are predicted in 2020, compared to the current period trend in weight gain. Conclusions T2DM incidence can be calculated from irregularly conducted population risk factor surveys which may be useful in developing countries with limited resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophia Lin & Take Naseri & Christine Linhart & Stephen Morrell & Richard Taylor & Stephen T. Mcgarvey & Dianna J. Magliano & Paul Zimmet, 2017. "Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Samoa over 1978–2013," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 62(6), pages 687-694, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijphth:v:62:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s00038-017-0961-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00038-017-0961-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Galit Shmueli & Thomas P. Minka & Joseph B. Kadane & Sharad Borle & Peter Boatwright, 2005. "A useful distribution for fitting discrete data: revival of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(1), pages 127-142, January.
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    1. Sophia Lin & Take Naseri & Christine Linhart & Stephen Morrell & Richard Taylor & Stephen T. McGarvey & Paul Zimmet, 2018. "Response to comments by Hoyer and Brinks (2017) on: ‘Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Samoa over 1978–2013’," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 63(1), pages 153-154, January.

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