IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/finsto/v27y2023i4d10.1007_s00780-023-00515-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A stochastic control perspective on term structure models with roll-over risk

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Fontana

    (University of Padova)

  • Simone Pavarana

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Wolfgang J. Runggaldier

    (University of Padova)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability assumption, which enables us to work in the context of the benchmark approach. In a Markovian setting, we extend the control-theoretic approach of Gombani and Runggaldier (Math. Finance 23 (2013) 659–686) and derive representations of spot/forward spreads as value functions of suitable stochastic optimal control problems, formulated under the real-world probability and with power-type objective functionals. We determine endogenously the funding–liquidity spread by relating it to the risk-sensitive optimisation problem of a representative investor.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Fontana & Simone Pavarana & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2023. "A stochastic control perspective on term structure models with roll-over risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 903-932, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:27:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s00780-023-00515-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-023-00515-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00780-023-00515-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00780-023-00515-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk Becherer, 2001. "The numeraire portfolio for unbounded semimartingales," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 327-341.
    2. Tomas Björk & Yuri Kabanov & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 1997. "Bond Market Structure in the Presence of Marked Point Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 211-239, April.
    3. Huy N. Chau & Andrea Cosso & Claudio Fontana & Oleksii Mostovyi, 2015. "Optimal investment with intermediate consumption under no unbounded profit with bounded risk," Papers 1509.01672, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    4. Alfeus, Mesias & Grasselli, Martino & Schlögl, Erik, 2020. "A consistent stochastic model of the term structure of interest rates for multiple tenors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. Yuri Kabanov & Constantinos Kardaras & Shiqi Song, 2016. "No arbitrage of the first kind and local martingale numéraires," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 1097-1108, October.
    6. Ioannis Karatzas & Constantinos Kardaras, 2007. "The numéraire portfolio in semimartingale financial models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 447-493, October.
    7. Christa Cuchiero & Claudio Fontana & Alessandro Gnoatto, 2016. "A general HJM framework for multiple yield curve modelling," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 267-320, April.
    8. Damir Filipović & Eckhard Platen, 2009. "Consistent Market Extensions Under The Benchmark Approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 41-52, January.
    9. Jacob Bjerre Skov & David Skovmand, 2023. "Decomposing LIBOR in transition: evidence from the futures markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 959-978, June.
    10. Gallitschke, Janek & Seifried (née Müller), Stefanie & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2017. "Interbank interest rates: Funding liquidity risk and XIBOR basis spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 142-152.
    11. Tahir Choulli & Jun Deng & Junfeng Ma, 2015. "How non-arbitrage, viability and numéraire portfolio are related," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 719-741, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudio Fontana & Simone Pavarana & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2023. "A stochastic control perspective on term structure models with roll-over risk," Papers 2304.04453, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    2. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2018. "Log-optimal portfolio without NFLVR: existence, complete characterization, and duality," Papers 1807.06449, arXiv.org.
    3. Fontana, Claudio & Runggaldier, Wolfgang J., 2021. "Arbitrage concepts under trading restrictions in discrete-time financial markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 66-80.
    4. Huy N. Chau & Andrea Cosso & Claudio Fontana, 2018. "The value of informational arbitrage," Papers 1804.00442, arXiv.org.
    5. Claudio Fontana & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2020. "Arbitrage concepts under trading restrictions in discrete-time financial markets," Papers 2006.15563, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    6. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2018. "Explicit description of all deflators for market models under random horizon with applications to NFLVR," Papers 1803.10128, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    7. Michael Monoyios, 2020. "Infinite horizon utility maximisation from inter-temporal wealth," Papers 2009.00972, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    8. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2022. "Log-optimal and numéraire portfolios for market models stopped at a random time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 535-585, July.
    9. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Approximating the numéraire portfolio by naive diversification," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 34-50, February.
    10. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2018. "Log-optimal portfolio and num\'eraire portfolio for market models stopped at a random time," Papers 1810.12762, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    11. Michael Monoyios, 2020. "Duality for optimal consumption under no unbounded profit with bounded risk," Papers 2006.04687, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    12. Bálint, Dániel Ágoston, 2022. "Characterisation of L0-boundedness for a general set of processes with no strictly positive element," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 51-75.
    13. Mostovyi, Oleksii, 2020. "Asymptotic analysis of the expected utility maximization problem with respect to perturbations of the numéraire," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(7), pages 4444-4469.
    14. Anna Aksamit & Tahir Choulli & Jun Deng & Monique Jeanblanc, 2017. "No-arbitrage up to random horizon for quasi-left-continuous models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1103-1139, October.
    15. Dániel Ágoston Bálint & Martin Schweizer, 2018. "Making No-Arbitrage Discounting-Invariant: A New FTAP Beyond NFLVR and NUPBR," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-23, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Mar 2018.
    16. Choulli, Tahir & Yansori, Sina, 2022. "Explicit description of all deflators for market models under random horizon with applications to NFLVR," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 230-264.
    17. Aksamit, Anna & Choulli, Tahir & Deng, Jun & Jeanblanc, Monique, 2019. "No-arbitrage under additional information for thin semimartingale models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(9), pages 3080-3115.
    18. Huy N. Chau & Andrea Cosso & Claudio Fontana, 2020. "The value of informational arbitrage," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 277-307, April.
    19. Huy N. Chau & Miklos Rasonyi, 2016. "On optimal investment with processes of long or negative memory," Papers 1608.00768, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    20. Constantinos Kardaras & Jan Obłój & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "The Numéraire Property And Long-Term Growth Optimality For Drawdown-Constrained Investments," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 68-95, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Roll-over risk; Liquidity risk; Interest rate; Multiplicative spread; Term rate; Benchmark approach; Stochastic control; Risk-sensitive portfolio optimisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:27:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s00780-023-00515-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.